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It’s nice to see the Fed deal with the recession aggressively in their rate cut. Here’s a good summary from Bloomberg:

The Federal Reserve cut the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero and said it will buy debt as the next step in combating the longest recession in a quarter-century and reviving credit.
The Fed “will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in a statement in Washington. “Weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”

Here’s a good summary of economist commentary from WSJ/Real Time Economics blog in their post: Economists React: ‘Who Could Ask for Anything More?’

I pondered this action last week…..

We are now 0 to .25, the lowest federal funds rate ever and hopefully the beginning of noticeable stimulus to the economy. Of course, this fact is still to be determined by whether banks opt to start lending full scale soon rather than simply recapitalizing.

I am thinking we will see some thawing (on a small scale) in the first half of 2009, because lenders have to actually lend at some point (I know they are currently lending, but not enough to sustain their existence). If they don’t move forward, many will need to reinvent themselves (that is what the investment banks already did) fairly soon.

Aside: speaking of gambling, here’s the worst last name ever.

See the rest here:
[Almost Zero] It’s Now Or Never: Fed Needs To Use The Toolbox

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Don’t fulfill your contractual obligations and you get bailed out.

Fulfill your contractual obligations and you get evicted.

That’s the way the process has played out.

Chauntay Barnes, 30, moved into a single-family home with her two kids in November 2007 on a quiet street in Hamden, Conn. She never missed a payment on her $800 rent — never had so much as a late fee — and yet in mid-September she opened her mail to find an eviction notice.

If you are going to solve the housing crisis, you can’t treat tenants who met the their obligations as a throwaway. Fannie Mae is going to work with some tenants to prevent eviction. Still, only a fraction of the evictions will be prevented.

In a move that provides relief to thousands of renters who face eviction but draws the federal government even deeper into the housing market, the loan giant Fannie Mae said Sunday that it would sign new leases with renters living in foreclosed properties owned by the company.

In recent months, skyrocketing foreclosure rates have exposed as many as 70,000 renters to evictions, even though many never missed rent payments, according to analysts who track housing data. In many cities and states, renters can be evicted after their home goes into foreclosure, regardless of how long their lease stretches into the future.

Yes, properties may be easier to market when vacant, but the reality is the property will likely see extended marketing times with the surplus inventory levels. Why not keep income coming in to the taxpayer while the market finds it groove?

“We’re not in the business of managing rental properties, and we’re not in the business of being a landlord,” said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which owns about two million loans. “Clearly the renter is caught in the middle in cases like this. When a property is in foreclosure, we follow the law.”

When will the renter stop being treated like a second class citizen? Is the American dream of homeownership myopic?

Aside: The National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a consumer advocacy group has an amazing public relations sensibility. I would guess that coverage of this issue in the NYT and WSJ was a perfectly placed pitch. Kudos to them on this important issue.

Read more:
[New Fannie Policy] Renters Rewarded For Meeting Obligations

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I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.

Source: Crain’s New York Business

Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.

Read more here:
Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – December 2008

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There was an interesting Op-Ed piece in the New York Times this week written by Howard Husock of the Manhattan Institute called Housing Goals We Can’t Afford.

The article points out that with all the housing and mortgage woes across the country, it’s pretty easy to point fingers. However, it gets more difficult when you point them at groups that tried to do the right thing.

The Community Reinvestment Act was passed in 1977 when bank competition was sharply limited by law and lenders had little incentive to seek out business in lower-income neighborhoods. But in 1995 the Clinton administration added tough new regulations. The federal government required banks that wanted “outstanding” ratings under the act to demonstrate, numerically, that they were lending both in poor neighborhoods and to lower-income households.

Banks were now being judged not on how their loans performed but on how many such loans they made. This undermined the regulatory emphasis on safety and soundness. A compliance officer for a New Jersey bank wrote in a letter last month to American Banker that “loans were originated simply for the purpose of earning C.R.A. recognition and the supporting C.R.A. scoring credit.” The officer added, “In effect, a lender placed C.R.A. scoring credit, and irresponsible mortgage lending, ahead of safe and sound underwriting.”

I remember at one point, quite a while ago, before digitally delivered appraisals, lenders were calling us to get the census tract number the property was located in. We soon discovered that the standardized binder that held the appraisal and other mortgage documents, required two holes punched at the top of the form. One of the holes covered the census tract number. This number was used to credit the bank with originations in lower-income neighborhoods. It struck home (no pun intended) how important it was for them to cover all the markets.

CRA is a noble endeavor. The solution to uneven lending missed a basic economic fact: banks were pressed to lend in areas with lower home ownership and therefore had to lower their underwriting standards to get enough volume to make the regulators happy.

The result? Higher default rates are experienced in these markets. Mandating quantity creates an environment of weaker quality.

If the Community Reinvestment Act must stay in force, then regulators should take loan performance, not just the number of loans made, into account. We have seen the dangers of too much money chasing risky borrowers.

An argument can be made here for encouraging renting when ownership is not affordable or simply creates too high of an investment risk. You can look around and see what happened when lending practices were not reflective of market forces. Bedlam – good intentions or not.

Read the original here:
[Community Reinvestment Act Reconsidered] Quantity Before Quality

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I’ve been recovering from a wicked cold, swamped at work, etc. and haven’t posted since the weekend, which simply isn’t right. Here’s a collection of links to blogs I follow. A large scale hat tip, so to speak. I also throw in news items and other tidbits that make me want to curl my cap.

This week’s theme: Getting Screwed

The Government Sucks; Or, Stimulus Is Just Another Word for Pork-Barrel Spending [The Cody Word]

Mortgage-Mod Conundrum [DataPoints]

An Etymological Suggestion [Greg Mankiw]

McMansion Watch: Near Me McMansion [Bubble Meter]

Report: GSEs May Waive Appraisals for Refis [Calculated Risk]

2008 Seven Deadly Sins awards [Charleston Real Estate]

Jamie Dimon: Banks Must Stop Enabling Junkie Whores, Prepare For Tough ‘09 [Dealbreaker]

How Big Is Bailout? Peel This Onion to Find Out [The Numbers Guy - WSJ]

Rep. Barney Frank: Wall Street Journal Editorial Board Does It Again [Huffington Post]

More or less; simple conceptual error that contributed to the credit crunch [Freakonomics]

Here is the original post:
[RE-Cap] Government Sucks, Mortgage-Mod, Car Commissar, Stop Enabling, Conceptual Error

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Not much wiggle room left for the Fed, but always time for New Wave “turning Japanese” nostalgia.

I keep thinking about the 0% discount rate set by the Bank of Japan since the mid-1990s and how that hasn’t worked. The Bank of England’s rate was dropped to 2%, the lowest since 1951.

Referring to Great Britain, but the same concept applies to the US economy:

Like Japan, the recession has shown government spending to be way out of kilter with the size of the post-bubble economy, and our budget deficits are set to easily reach those of Japan at its peak.

In Barrons:

Are U.S. Markets Turning Japanese?
It would seem so as yields plunge well below 3%. Think of it as the 1970s in reverse.

BABY BOOMERS, MORE THAN ANY OTHER GENERATION, seem stuck in their youths. Think of how the tastes of so many of their numbers remain ossified in the 1960s and 1970s, from Classic Rock on the radio to recreations of the autos of their youth, such as the VW Beetle, the Mustang and the Mini.

So, too, have their expectations about the economy. Prices only go one way — up — whether for the stuff they buy every day (except for computers and the other electronic accoutrements), their assets such as stocks or houses, or the pay for their services. They can no more conceive another kind of world than one without cell phones. And any departure must be an aberration, surely short-lived and certain to revert to the norm they’d known.

In other words, finance, as we know it, is undergoing massive change and the products we end up with are not going to be the same as we had a few years ago when the market was always going up.

Mortgage rates are fallng and mortgage applications (not necessarily successful applications) have just tripled and the US Treasury is talking about pushing rates as low as 4.5%. Although it doesn’t address jumbo mortgages, it is a first sign of progress, but by no means does it solve a whole lot.

Some say that with the nearly 8 trillion in exposure we taxpayers have through guaranties and investment, rates will rise with the flood of paper issued to pay for all this. I’m not sure. If the economy is lackluster at best for the next 2-3 years, I have a hard time seeing rates rising with the lack of demand in the near term.

Aside: Donald Trump is complaining his new Chicago condominium project is too expensive.

Yet another aside: This is your child’s brain on a Sony HD 52 inch Flat Screen with surround sound.

Big 3 + UAW aside: Combined common stock worth $3B, so lets give them $34B To date they have: fought emissions restrictions, fuel economy, safety features, make poor quality cars, and paid 12,000 people to not work. I went to school in Michigan and, despite obvious sympathy for hard working people in this situation, I have a hard time seeing how things are going to change in any way whatsoever. I’ll bet they don’t go on the same extravagant trips that AIG took if this goes through now that they have driven their own hybrids.

Read more:
[Below 1%] Turning Japanese, I Really Think So

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The Federal Reserve just released the Beige Book, at 2pm today which provides anecdotal commentary on the economy nationally and across the regions of its member banks.

Here’s real estate and mortgage excerpts from the overall report.

Nearly all Districts reported weak housing markets characterized by reduced selling prices and low, but stable, sales activity.

Real Estate and Construction

Residential real estate continued at a slow pace nationwide. Sales were down in most Districts, but mixed activity was noted in the Boston, Atlanta and Minneapolis Districts. Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Dallas noted decreases in housing prices. Inventories of unsold homes remained high in the New York, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, but declined in Chicago and Minneapolis. Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City reported relatively stronger demand for lower- and middle-priced “starter homes.”

Commercial real estate markets weakened broadly. Vacancy rates rose in Boston, New York, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco, but were mixed across markets in the St. Louis District. Leasing activity was down in almost all Districts. Rents fell in the Boston, New York and Kansas City Districts. Despite reductions in construction materials costs, commercial building activity declined in many Districts with tighter credit conditions as a factor.

Banking and Finance

Business and consumer lending activity continued to slow in most Districts. New York reported weakening loan demand in all categories, while Kansas City and San Francisco also witnessed substantial lending declines. Lending activity in other Districts was mixed among loan categories. In contrast, Philadelphia indicated that its banks saw loan volume rise in November, and some regional banks reported picking up new business borrowers. Cleveland reported that business loan volume has been steady to higher, and some bankers reported actively marketing their loan business.

Credit standards rose across the nation, with several Districts noting increases in loan delinquencies and defaults, especially in the real estate sector. Credit conditions remained tight. Chicago reported that FDIC actions and Federal Reserve lending had improved liquidity and slowed deposit outflows. Dallas indicated that government capital investments have led larger institutions to feel less constrained in their lending, while some smaller banks reported that scrutiny from regulators was making new deals more difficult to forge.

Here’s the NY District perspective from you know who.

A major residential appraisal firm reports substantial deterioration in New York City’s housing market over the past two months: prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume–much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers. Transaction activity has dropped off noticeably, and there has been a large increase in the number of listings. Some buyers that had signed contracts for units under construction earlier this year are having trouble getting financing at the contract price now that market values have dropped.

(I actually said 15%, ranging from 10%-20%)

Here’s the map (shades of beige, of course) in WSJ

Excerpted from:
[FedSpeak] Beige Colored Glasses

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One of the techniques employed to delay or ease the foreclosure problem has been to place a moratorium on foreclosures. I for one didn’t understand the concept. I still don’t. Usually the delay is 3 to 9 months.

Is that enough time to allow the homeowner to get back on their feet and start making payments again?

The economy is eroding (and now officially a 1-year recession), unemployment is still rising and credit is still frozen. For many it would seem to be an illusion or false hope. To some of course, the delay to keep lenders at bay is helpful and effective.

It is sort of ironic (I am seeing irony in just about everything these days) that delaying the foreclosure process was necessary by many who delayed the process (of paying for things).

Julie Satow at The Daily Beast (a terrific new Tina Brown – created site) brings us evidence of the false-positive that is foreclosure moratoriums in her article: New York’s Impending Real Estate Doom.

Back in August, state legislators in Albany set a 90-day freeze on foreclosures that’s created a backlog of foreclosure filings. The 90-days are up next month. Banks will be bringing foreclosure filings “by the wheelbarrow,” said one court officer in Queens, where the number of filings dropped to just 60 per week from a rate of 150 per week before the law took effect.

California, Florida and Connecticut are proposing moratoriums while Massachusetts already has one.

One of the first to enact a foreclosure delay was Massachusetts. It set a three-month freeze in May, creating a backlog in foreclosures that built up to August. In the end, foreclosure filings ballooned 456% between August and September, according to RealtyTrac, a site that tracks foreclosures nationally.

It seems to me that a delay, while well-intentioned, doesn’t do anything but compress more properties into foreclosure at the end of the moratorium, ultimately creating more listing inventory at the same time, placing even more distress, ultimately, on property values.

There is some speculation that the foreclosure phenomenon in California is starting to ebb, perhaps because they have been seeing heavy activity for nearly two years.

And yes, like construction permits, demolition permits are plummeting in New York.

And yes, we are now realizing that we have been in a recession for a full year (one of the longest since the Great Depression) and we haven’t yet seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Apparently rising unemployment, falling real personal income, falling industrial production as well as falling wholesale and retail sales declines somehow reflected a weaker economy. Call me crazy.

Aside: Noted economics blogger Tanta passed away on Sunday. She was a terrific writer for one of the best financial/econ blogs out there, Calculated Risk. Cancer has hit close to home in my family and it is never fair. In fact, it sucks.

More:
[Fore-Stalling-Closure] Delaying Doesn’t Solve The Problem

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I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.

Source: Crain’s New York Business

Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.

Read more here:
Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – November 2008

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Ok, I am on an appraisal-related commentary binge lately. But thats to be expected when the lending system is in upheaval and the appraisal industry was the enabler of the misguided/unethical application of risk. Some of it was the appraisal industry’s fault for capitulating to pressure, while an equally large portion of blame goes to lenders who applied the pressure.

There has been a shift in the deal dynamic as evidenced in this recent article: Suddenly, Stricter Appraisals by Lisa Prevost in the New York Times.

“A house is only worth what the bank says,” said Terry Hastings, a partner at Hamilton Mortgage, in Ridgefield. “It’s not worth what the buyer says anymore.”

Spoken like a mortgage broker. One of the reason so many mortgage brokers have gone under in the past year has been their inability to find “good appraisers.” I continue to be amazed that most people think banks call their appraisers in and tell them to be “more conservative.”

It’s all about underwriting these days. Banks are actually reading reports now (I kid you not).

Mortgage lenders determined to stave off additional losses are demanding more thorough home appraisals and carefully reviewing valuation figures. If an appraisal is deemed too thin on supporting data, lenders may reduce the loan amount for the property, or not make the loan at all.

If lenders aren’t comfortable with the appraisal or the data is too thin, the underwriter simply raises the LTV.

Lower-than-expected bank appraisals are indeed sending some buyers and sellers back to the bargaining table for another go-round, said Rosamond A. Koether, a lawyer with Cohen & Wolf, in Westport. But in her experience, the tougher appraisal standards are more often an obstacle for homeowners hoping to restructure debt by refinancing.

If buyers and sellers willing re-negotiate the deal because of a low appraisal. Guess what? That’s market value.

What’s interesting about the article, is the mention of the greater difficulty in refinancing and the appraisal. That’s because of two reasons. First, there is not a flesh out transaction to observe between a buyer and seller to create value credibility. Secondly, the property owner is more likely to estimate their property value based on what they need, rather than what it is worth. The orientation is skewed after years of simply asking what they needed and getting it (or more).

Many lenders are requiring “comps” sales of comparable properties used to help determine a home’s value no more than 60 to 90 days old, and within a mile of the property being appraised.

While that’s a reasonable and fair request in a changing market, there are fewer sales in many housing markets today and meeting these suddenly stricter expectations is not possible, which essentially leads to a deal being killed.

One of the items that was not mentioned in the article is the blame the appraiser gets for a deal falling through. Often times, a bank or mortgage broker will tell the borrower that the appraiser “killed” the deal or presented something that prevented the deal from happening. A very sleazy practice to say the least.

The biggest problem in lending today is the fact that while they are more strict with underwriting, they haven’t done a thing to improve the quality of the appraisers they hire. They are still focused on low cost appraisals, bang ‘em out. Given the mortgage market upheaval…it’s amazing.

“It used to be banks would call and the first question they would ask was, ‘How familiar are you with a particular area?’” he said. “Now, that conversation starts with, ‘What’s the lowest fee you can offer and what’s your fastest turnaround time?’”

In the state of this housing market, the word “strict” needs to be appraised for it’s relativity.

Aside: This is stuff is all very interesting, but how does this trade group track this specific data? Enquiring minds want to know.

Go here to see the original:
[Value Snapshot] A Strict Shift In The Deal Dynamic

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Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Here’s a slew of easy to understand charts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the key national economic indicators that relate to housing such as consumption, housing starts and sales, employment, oil, consumer confidence, GDP and others.

My favorites are below (here are all of them/expanded in size):






Go here to see the original:
[Getting Graphic] National Economic Indicators: Pictures tell $700B Words

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I’ve discussed the curse of stadium naming. The new Citi Field set is in danger of going Enron on us. After all, the naming rights are only a paltry $400M and the Sunday’s Citi bailout was $326B.

And now Citigroup gets a bailout.

A few months ago, Citigroup’s appraisal group based in Missouri put my appraisal firm out to pasture in favor of appraisal management companies (those big national companies known for high speed, low costs and virtually zero quality (aka “army of form fillers”) aka AMCs.

The irony here is amazing given their need for a bailout.

Here’s a sampling of our former clients who are national banks that went with appraisal management company factories and ended up getting into financial trouble.

  • Citigroup – went with AMCs
  • Washington Mutual – Residential mortgage lending gone – went with AMCs – NY AG tried to sue them for collusion with eAppraisIT to pressure appraisers (an AMC)
  • Countrywide – absorbed by Bank of America – lots of litigation in the future
  • US Trust Company – went with AMCs – such a disaster they actually came back to their appraisers only to be purchased by Bank of America and then we were dumped again
  • Bank of America – went with AMCs – rumors that it was such a bad experience, returning to appraisers
  • Wachovia – created their own AMC, Bought by PNC.

Coincidence?

Not really. Like the stadium naming deal, the shift to an AMC symbolizes the point when a mortgage lender goes to far and loses touch with it’s understanding of risk. The corporate culture loses the ability to understand the importance of assessing the value of the collateral to which they are lending. Seems like common sense ran amok.

For the most part, the individual review appraisers that worked at these lenders were professional and competent and could see the issue at hand, but they just didn’t have the political weight, so to speak.

Hopefully those institutional politics will be crushed by the seventh inning stretch.

This just in: Tiger Woods now needs to rustle up lunch money.

Here is the original:
Bailing Out Mets Fans, Appraising Opening Day At US Treasury Field

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Well this weekend was pretty decent:

Not much accomplished if measured in productivity, yet it was still a good weekend (even though my kids didn’t like the chocolate pudding).

Originally posted here:
[In The Media] A1 For NYT & NY Mag’s Best Photo Shoot Ever

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It’s been a while since I linked out to bloggers whom I follow and admire. A large scale hat tip, so to speak. I also throw in news items and other tidbits that make me want to curl my cap.

This week’s theme: Change we can sort of believe in.

Political Fear and Loathing on Wall Street [XBroker]

The Option ARM Non-Bomb? [Infectious Greed]

From TARP to BARF [Curious Capitalist]

FDIC coupons [WallStreetJackass]

Love, Jobs & 401(k)s [NT Times]

When couples split, the home is a hot potato [Miami Herald]

Failing Home Economics [NYT]

Word A Day: exurb [A.Word.A.Day]

Just doing my job [Seth's Blog]

Rich Cut Back on Payments to Mistresses [Wealth Report]

Yuppie insurance [Free Exchange]

They Are Still Selling This Stuff? [Blown Mortgage]

Source:
[RE-Cap] TARP, BARF, Loathing, Coupons And A Hot Potato

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One of my favorite online columns at the Wall Street Journal is “The Numbers Guy” – by Carl Bialik. He tackles the foggy issue of housing indexes this week, which have entered the mainstream conversation over the past few years. (My firm was nearly acquired by one of the firms in the piece before I pulled the plug as the financial markets began to crack. Phew!)

In “Only One Person Knows a Home’s Value: Its Buyer: House-Price Index Readings Can Be Inflated, Built on Shaky Foundations and Far From the Right Neighborhood“, Carl makes the case that:

The one point of widespread agreement in the real-estate industry is that there is no single accurate index of home prices. They are all over the map, cover different sets of homes and may exclude parts of the country or be unduly influenced by the mix of homes sold in a given month.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Index is perhaps the best known housing benchmark and was the first major index to the space. One of it’s authors, professor Bob Shiller, is well known for his bestselling book. As a result, it has become the index most often cited in the media and perhaps most subject to attack by competitors, and by various segments of the housing industry who don’t like the sharp declines it has been reporting.

The real irony here is that CSI and others were created to enable the sale of financial instruments so that investors can better manage risk or simply follow the US housing market in aggregate….not for individual consumers to track their local housing markets in real time, given the lengthy delay in some of the index reporting schedules (CSI releases September data next Tuesday).

Yet in one of the weakest housing markets in years, significant trading activity appears to remain elusive in this business space and their application is expanding into the consumer space.

But the indexes may be leading everyone astray. Just as respondents to election surveys are meant to stand in for the broader electorate, the homes being sold need to represent all homes. The problem is, producers of these price measures aren’t sure that sale prices reflect the values of houses not on the market.

Carl’s column does thrash the indexes quite a bit, but in their defense, their day will certainly come as data collection gets better and faster, and markets for these products evolve as investors begin to understand them. I suspect this will occur at the point where Wall Street is able to reinvent itself.

Its going to be interesting to see how long acceptance is going to take to achieve. I suspect it will be measured in years.

After all, it’s freezing out there.

Read more from the original source:
[It's Freezing Out There] Housing Indexes Take A Back Seat

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