These photos say it all: captured on Movoto.com, a foreclosure listing somewhere in North Oakland, California. The listing doesn’t appear to be there now but the links to the photos are still here and here.
Sadness and…
Blood?
What was the listing agent thinking?
Go here to see the original:
[Matrix Images] Foreclosure Listings: Sad And Bloody
Trulia launches yet another innovation today called Trulia Snapshot that further shows that they are the leaders in capturing and managing listing information for consumers. (disclosure: I am on their industry advisory panel)
Its one of a number of innovations they have released that deals specifically with the visual representation of data.
Trulia Snapshot is a tool that allows you to browse properties listed for sale on Trulia in a very different way. The photos are placed over a map of the local you are interested in and you can view by most to least expensive, oldest to newest, etc.
My favorite feature is being able to see where the specific listing sits within the housing stock available for sale.
Very cool.
See the rest here:
[Trulia Snapshot] Visualizing Listing Shots Are, Well, A Snap
For as hard as the typical Realtor works to make a living, that goodwill is quickly undone when looking at the forecasts that come out of Lawrence Yun’s office at NAR. Disbelief has been a recurring theme in the blogosphere since LY took over the reigns from DL.
Nearly once a week, I am hammered with some sort of press release spin that is, for lack of a better word, gross.
Now that the subprime market has dried up, and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making a comeback, the housing markets will strengthen and prices are likely to begin a steady uptick in the coming months, Yun said.
Based on what?
“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”
Those aren’t the facts, plain and simple. It’s so simplistic a statement, it’s sad, actually. The problem remains with credit and the large drop in purchasing power that created artificially high demand. Bloated inventory levels are still a significant factor.
One could reasonably argue that Yun is committing consumer fraud by trying to entice people to buy into a market that is poised to fall further. I suppose he thinks his ridiculous predictions will restore confidence in the real estate market. If in fact his role is to spread optimism, the NAR should be legally required to post an appropriate disclaimer stating their real purpose.
Please watch this video - is it just me or is this just plain gross? What is the NAR thinking? They desperately need to reconsider this approach to public relations. The consumer needs to be given credit for having intelligence.
It’s embarrassing. Really.
You Can’t Make This Up
See original here:
[NAR Forecast] You Can’t Make This Up
Spring brings optimism to our economic senses, and that’s probably a good thing. Pessimism as it relates to the housing market usually becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. After all, what is property value but an intangible feeling about a property compared to others based on future expectations (and of course, a lot of other things, but bear with me).
I was invited to speak to a group of successful real estate professionals yesterday and mingled with many before I spoke. I was struck by many comments along the lines of: “in the last week and a half, the market seems to have woken up…”
After all, it is spring. It is sunny outside. Optimism encroaches on judgement and sensibilities. Buyers venture out of their winter hibernation and sellers want to move on. It is a good feeling.
I also have observed the same optimism in the past few weeks covering the reporting of economic conditions which has been confusing. The economic numbers continue to show trouble ahead, but the interpretations are clearly more optimistic than just a month ago.
David Leonhardt has a very good article in today’s New York Times called Fearing Red Herring In the Data.
Only a month ago, a recession looked inevitable. Job cuts were picking up speed, and stock prices were falling. The Federal Reserve was cutting its benchmark interest rate rapidly, in an effort to keep the downturn from snowballing. But the notion that the economy could avoid a recession altogether seemed fanciful.
It looks less fanciful today. The economic news hasn’t exactly been sunny lately, but there also haven’t been any nasty new surprises. If anything, the economy seems to have stabilized. The pace of layoffs has eased a bit, stocks have risen and the Fed has signaled that the rate cuts are over for now.
Apparently the sunny side perspective is based on the reduced amount of economic catastrophes that are being announced each day. In other words, the bad news has stabilized and therefore we are approaching some sort of bottom.
The article mentions InTrade, which scored a PR coup a few days ago by being the feature story on ABC News’ 20/20. I was going to write a post about InTrade during the broadcast but the web site was overwhelmed by traffic and I couldn’t load it.
InTrade is a consumer based trading market that allows anyone to bet on the outcome of events like whether the economy is in recession or who will win the Democratic presidential nomination. Leonhardt mentions that investors now only give a 29% chance that the ecoomy will go into a recession. I believe we are actually in a recession or flirting on the edge of one.
For the life of me, I am not aware of any current economic condition that is going to stimulate new demand for housing in the immediate future above and beyond current levels. No tangible benefits have been introduced by the government to soften the damage the housing market has inflicted on the economy. It’s a tough nut to crack.
At least on a federal level, I do find solace in the fact that everyone seems to have woken up to the condition of the housing market.
Two types of housing bottoms:
Bottom 1 — The point where the decline in real estate markets is not accelerating
Bottom 2 — The point where both real estate market prices and activity stop declining
They both represent very different conditions and once the first bottom is reached, there is no telling how long the lag to the second bottom will be.
Still, it is spring.
Read the original post:
[Spring Fishing] Getting To The Bottom Of It All
It’s bad enough that the current NAR chief economist has made himself irrelevant by continues to say some crazy things about the housing market:
Two things homebuyers shouldn’t have to worry about is a recession or long-term credit crunch.
Yun, who admits that he has to balance empirical data with a role of advocacy for the housing market, said that while the beginning of 2008 has been weak so far, the second half of the year should see an uptick that could lead to home value growth of more than 20 percent in the next five years. “I think there is enough momentum to bring the buyers back into the market,” Yun said.
His adventures are well chronicled in Lawrence Yun Watch which followed the widely read David Lereah Watch who was his predecessor.
Now we are seeing the former cheerleader for NAR, David Lereah espousing negative views on housing.
David Lereah was the poster boy for all that was wrong with the housing boom. He wasn’t that subtle about spin, or perhaps an organization like his didn’t have the blogosphere to contend with before he came on the scene.
David Lereah moved on to Move and when they experienced problems, moved on to his startup Reecon Advisors, which provides advice to Wall Street. Interesting. Didn’t Wall Street read the newspapers during the housing boom? What advice are they looking for?
I guess the only point to this post is that I find it amazing that someone, who is so smart and articulate, take the dubious path that he took, and still be able to sell books and be paid for advice, which contrasts what he doled out for years with NAR and apparently trained his successor well.
I have so much to learn.
Here is the original:
[Move-ing Violation] After Sunny Skies, Chicken Little Sees His Shadow
On Matrix I have long been critical of the NAR’s efforts to spin the market as positive no matter what is happening (there is an alternative to negative spin – it’s called neutral). NAR is a repository of great information so I am not sure what they are afraid of. They don’t make the market. This tactic really represents old school thinking.
I have wanted to visually show how this was done, but alas it never got, well…done. I don’t grab other posts but this time I need to make an exception since it was so brilliantly done (hat tip to reader RentinginNJ, a fan of NJ RE Report via Big Picture). Both Jim Bednar’s New Jersey RE Report and Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture are heavily trafficked go to blogs for real estate info.
View original post on New Jersey RE Report
Although Barry makes an interesting point, I’d have to say I see no real change in NAR’s orientation in delivery of information to the press other than the latest release. One slight negative release doesn’t show a trend (3 data points to make a trent I am told). In fact, the press release titles for the prior two months had nothing to do with the data in their reports.
Each press release statement pertains to the corresponding number in the above chart.
“There’s no question there is a strong demand for housing from a growing population.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“For the foreseeable future, the demand for homes will continue to outstrip supply” -Al Mansell, NAR President
“We’ve been expecting sales to remain at historically high levels, but this performance underscores the value of housing as an investment and the importance of homeownership in fulfilling the American dream.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“We are returning to more balanced markets between home buyers and sellers… We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“This is part of the market adjustment we’ve been discussing, with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector. The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level. Overall fundamentals remain solid…” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“Higher interest rates are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist “After five years of booming sales, we are now experiencing normal market conditions across most of the country… most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future.” -Thomas M. Stevens, NAR President
“Over the last three months home sales have held in a narrow range, easing to a level that is near our annual projection, which tells us the market is stabilizing” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but it’ll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
Existing-home sales stabilized at a sustainable pace in August -NAR
“…the worst is behind us as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“It looks like we’re moving beyond the low for the housing cycle last fall, and buyers are responding to historically low interest rates and competitive pricing by home sellers. In addition, a tightening inventory of homes on the market is supporting prices.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“Fundamentals have improved in the housing market and buyers see a window now with historically-low mortgage interest rates and competitive pricing by sellers,” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“We also may be seeing some losses as a result of the subprime fallout. However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers.” -David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“Buyers who’ve been on the sidelines may want to take a closer look at current conditions in their area – if they wait for sales to rise, their choices and negotiating position won’t be as good as they are now.” -Pat V. Combs, NAR President
“The rise in sales and prices in the Northeast region on a fairly consistent basis in recent months is promising because this was the first region that underwent sales and price weakness after the boom. Now, it appears that it will be the first region to climb back, indicating that other regions could follow a similar path.” -Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
“The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled sales…Once we get through these disruptions, we’ll get a better sense of where the actual market is in late fall as conditions begin to normalize,” -Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
“Existing-Home Sales Rise in November, Market Likely Stabilizing” -NAR
“Home sales remain weak despite improved affordability conditions in many parts of the country, but we could get a quick boost to the market if loan limits are raised in combination with the bold cut in the Fed funds rate,” -Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Existing-Home Sales to Stablize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008 -NAR
Read the rest here:
NAR Spin Cycle Set To Permanent Press
