Real Estate Blog

After my post volume was “listing” for my Three Cents Worth column on Curbed, I feel I finally got my groove back, but it doesn’t look like the market did.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

Continued here:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Listings In The Zone, Barely

Just a little ditty that I have noticed is making the rounds again after being released back in August 2008. David A. Rosenberg, the often quoted bearish economist at Merrill Lynch released this terrific collection of charts.

The Frugal Future - Get more Docstoc Buzz

Here’s a few of my faves:

Apparently no one at Merrill listened to their own outspoken economist.

Read the original:
[Timeless Chartology] The Frugal Future

I have long believed in what I call the “theory of negative milestones.” There are seminal events that mark new periods of real estate activity.

This weekend’s New York Times real estate cover story was based on my firm’s ongoing research of the Manhattan housing market. The content in the article was thoroughly fleshed out by my friend Noah over at Urban Digs so I won’t elaborate.

In 2008, the influence of the credit crunch has been characterized by various levels of impact on segments and a lower level of activity. Everyone who lives in Manhattan can feel it, especially those in the real estate brokerage business. The events of the past two months have marked a new milestone with the bailout of Frannie, the $700B stimulus package, collapse of Lehman, the purchase of Merrill, the reclassification of Morgan and Goldman to commercial bank status, aggressive actions including cutting rates by the Fed, a culmination of 22 months of campaigning, a new party taking over the executive branch and gaining power in Congress. In other words, change.

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The promise or anticipation of change makes people in real estate pause and reflect.

Still, there is real estate activity, albeit at a slower pace. Informed buyers are signing contracts. Many participants are optimistic about the new direction promised by the new administration, and in the short term, that may cause a slight bump up in activity. However, the credit crunch continues to overshadow housing markets in the US.

Stabilize credit, then and only then, can the housing improve.

Speaking of wolves at the door…

Originally posted here:
[In The Media] Theory Of Negative Milestones Means A New Beginning

All the stockmarket gyrations of the week gave me inspiration for an unheard of second Three Cents Worth column on Curbed this week. This time look at the new, new re-sale thing.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

Go here to read the rest:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: New v. Used

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Philly real estate: low level of sales, price changes mixed

But while the Philadelphia’ market has declined less than many other U.S. cities, the news here is still sobering:

• Inventories (homes listed for sale) still stand at all- time high levels. As of September, there were nearly 11,000 houses listed for sale in Philadelphia, nearly double their pre- bubble average.
• The number of homes that actually sold under arms-length conditions in Q3 stood at just over 4,500; well below the nearly 8,000 that was the average during the boom years.
• The continued high number of homes for sale combined with a continuously shrinking pool of buyers means homes continue to linger on the market. The average time it took to sell a home in Philadelphia in Q3 was 67 days, which is well above the 30-40 days it takes in a balanced market.
• And, while Philadelphia’s rate of foreclosure is well below the average for most large U.S. cities, it is nonetheless up nearly 50% from one year ago.

More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.

Read more here:
[Cheesesteak Bucks Trend] Philly Real Estate Housing Sees Modest Declines

The 3Q 2008 Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.

To review the report methodology.

An excerpt

…Both price indicators have declined nearly every quarter since the first quarter of 2007. Median sales price in the current quarter is $400,000, down 11.4% from the $451,250 of the prior year quarter and down 20% from the $480,000 market peak in first quarter 2007. Average sales price reached $436,575 this quarter, down 8.8% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $478,752 and down 11.2% from the $485,455 average sales price for the first quarter of 2007. The market trends by quintiles showed a wide range of price trends. The entry level or first quintile was $175,000 and showed no change in median sales price from the prior year quarter. The weakest segment was the third or middle quintile, that saw a 25.8% decline in median sales price to $335,000 from $451,250 in the same period last year…

Download report: 3Q 2008 Queens Market Overview [pdf]

See the original post:
3Q 2008 Queens Market Overview Available For Download

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

See the rest here:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

Go here to see the original:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

Go here to read the rest:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

Go here to see the original:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

Read the original:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

View original here:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

View original here:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

Continued here:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II

Here’s the remainder of the Q&A column I was invited by the New York Times to participate in, along with Vicki Been of the NYU/Furman Center.

I enjoyed the process and was asked to do more in the future.

Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate?

This is the second session. There were originally supposed to be three, but they asked more questions in each of the two so I suppose they felt they had enough.

And who needs reality television when you’ve got Karl Rove speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention.

The rest is here:
[NYT] Expert Q&A: A Downturn for New York Real Estate? Part II