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In an analysis done of census data pre-housing boom (1990s), The Brookings Institute in their recent report Where Workers Go, Do Jobs Follow? found that:
And then comes the 2000s
The New Urbanism movement, bolstered by the housing boom’s creation of new luxury housing stock and redevelopment of underutilized commercial districts, has seemingly reversed the long term migration to the suburbs. The decline in serious crime levels in urban markets have also played a major role in boosting demand (and may in turn further influenced the decline)
Will the current economic downturn undo urban housing trends in many US cities?
Based on the St. Lousi Fed research paper City Business Cycles and Crime by Thomas A. Garrett
and Lesli S. Ott , perhaps not:
We find weak evidence across U.S. cities that changes in economic
conditions significantly influence short-run changes in crime. This suggests that short-
run changes in economic conditions do not induce individuals to commit crimes…we do find that short-run changes in economic conditions influence property [versus violent] crimes in a greater number of cities.
I have always seen crime levels and other quality of life issues as long term trends, like steering a super tanker (admittedly, a tired analogy).
And while we are on the subject of research papers…
Here is the original post:
Urban Housing Trends Aren’t A Crime
I am struck by the extreme range and contrast of housing development beyond traditional on-site construction. From mobile homes on the low end to art-like pre-fab homes on the high end.
Single-wide, double-wide, wide-load
The mobile home market, which often represents the lower end of the housing demographic, is seeing particular hardship right now in the availability of financing. It is sort of a a hybrid of real estate and chattel (personal property).
In the development of mobile home parks it is not unusual for the home owner to be situated on leased land, something not generally done in traditional home building. Pre-fab homes (the kind you see being hauled in two halves on semi-tricks) are generally lumped into the same category. A few years ago there was a meltdown in the manufactured home mortgage market so now the new housing law directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to come up with new loan products and flexible underwriting standards for manufactured homes. Don’t count on it.
Tubes on stilts
On the other end of the spectrum, pre-fab housing is seen as making a statement, an artistic interpretation of housing. The exception would be the type where the art/brand transcends the house, like the Frank Lloyd Wright utilitarian homes scattered throughout the midwest and Levittown. Long since bastardized to match today’s living standards. Worthy of the Museum of Modern Art, the emphasis is placed on design over functionality and practicality.
And of course, The Haute Couture of Suburbia
I digress…
Little pink houses for you and me. And while we are thinking rock n roll, here’s proof that the wheels really coming off the wagon.
Source:
[Pink Houses] Pre-fab Factory Made Fad To Not Really Mobile Homes
The recently passed Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 helps first-time homebuyers enter the housing market in a number of ways, like offering a tax credit of 10 percent of the cost of the home, not to exceed $7500. Builders are doing their part to stimulate activity at a time when sales activity is beginning to pick up pace. Pulte Homes, for example, is giving an even broader boost to buyers as with its “Jump-Start” promotion whereby every buyer who signs a purchase agreement on a new Pulte, Del Webb or DiVosta home through September 15, 2008 is eligible for at least $7,500 in savings in addition to any government-sponsored tax credits that may apply to their home purchase.
Continued here:
Builders Doing Their Part to Help Consumers Take Advantage of Tax Credits
Six years ago we (me, my wife and sister) formed a commercial valuation firm Miller Cicero with long time industry veteran John Cicero, MAI.
People have always told me “the only good partner is a dead partner” but John proved them wrong…lucky for John. 
He’s a great appraiser, smart, fun to be around and best of all, he’s got integrity (and if you have kept up with this blog, you’ll know thats in short supply in the mortgage business).
Miller Cicero has been guided with the same business philosophy as Miller Samuel has for nearly 22 years: think long term - neutrality - no short cuts.
It’s refreshing to see that there are clients out there that actually want to have an unbiased value estimate performed on a property. That’ll be the forward trend.
More:
Miller Cicero Turns Six
One of the real estate conversations that everyone seems to have involves calling a bottom. Why are we so obsessed with calling a bottom?
If you’re right, you can claim it and tout it on your resume for the rest of your career.
I’ve certainly been asked the “bottom” question like a gazillion times. We should learn from the prior conversation, which was “calling the top.” In the prior scenario economists and pundits got lots of air time doing this. Call the top for several years and eventually you’ll be right. Consistency is a virtue.
“People are looking for a reason to get off the fence. The most asked question in America today other than who Obama’s Vice President is going to be is probably when is the bottom? And if you even smell as though you are in real estate, people ask you that question all day long.”
Let’s have that real estate conversation now:
Q: When is the housing market going to bottom?
A: I don’t know.
One thing I do know, it is not going to be this year. And so what?
What does “calling a bottom” do for anyone, anyway? …especially if it’s only a gut feeling. Yun of NAR has been calling for a bottom more times than I care to recite and even his most loyal fans are getting numb.
The idea that we want to have finality with the problems of the housing market is certainly understandable. When someone is stepping on your foot, you’d like to get an idea when they’ll get off of it.
We simply need to know. Or as said in the movie “Dirty Harry” by a criminal who was staring down the barrel of a 44 magnum (the most powerful handgun in the world) …”I gots to know.”
“V” versus “L” shaped bottom
My biggest issue with the answer to this question is that it is misleading. To most consumers, the “bottom” means the end of housing market stress and it marks the point where things will get better. Trough to peak.
Have you looked at the credit situation lately? The health of the GSEs?
Calling a “bottom” today likely means the point where things stop getting worse. And a flat bottom could stick around for a number of years. Think about it. What constructive actions to restore faith in the credit/investor/financial markets which provide liquidity for mortgages have occurred since last summer?
Steep and Deep, Short and Shallow
Another issue that is clearly perverse and often baffling in the answer to the “bottom” question concerns the vastly different performance characteristics of each market. There is no national housing market.
Some markets will see the housing market deterioration as steep and deep, others will be short and shallow, and the remainder in between. While all markets are connected by credit and mortgage quality and quantity, local conditions rule. I think the upturn in Michigan, with it’s auto industry woes, is much farther away than south Florida, the current post child for rampant speculation and five year inventories of the past several years.
I’m looking forward to getting to the bottom of the bottom discussion. Please.
Read more:
[Analysis Paralysis] Calling The Bottom Of Calling The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market
Good news has made its way into the real estate arena this summer — in the form of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. What does this Act mean for you?
View post:
What the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 Means for You
I saw the 3rd installment of The Mummy with my son recently and he opined immediately after the movie ended that “it was just about the worst movie he had ever seen.”
When you look around at every institution involved in the mortgage process, after seeing this prolonged bad movie, it’s especially interesting that, other than enforcement authorities (Like FBI and attorney generals), no one is doing anything about reparations for the rampant fraud and sloppy underwriting that likely adds up to billions. I find this a continual source of amazement.
A legal precedent may be in the making within the title industry:
Ticor Title, one of the largest title insurance firms in the country, is suing Countrywide Home Loans, the nation’s largest home lender, saying it shouldn’t have to pay out on a title policy because of Countrywide’s gross negligence.
In other words, title insurance companies may begin to go after mortgage lenders who were negligent in their underwriting. In other words, it is simply the low hanging fruit to help offset significant losses.
Here is the case that was the last straw for Ticor.
The case that Ticor has drawn a line in the sand over concerns a $360,000 first mortgage on a graystone Victorian in the Kenwood neighborhood on the South Side. The story of that loan was told in a front-page Tribune story in February, several weeks after a clothed, mummified male corpse was discovered in the boarded-up house by a real estate speculator who had purchased the property from Countrywide in a foreclosure auction.
I wonder if an appraiser inspected the property at anytime? Good grief. (This AP appraisal article should have been written back in 2005 when the industry was screaming about appraisal pressure.)
Here is the original post:
[Entitlement] The Mummy Returns (Proving A Lack Of Underwriting Quality)
I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.
Source: Crain’s New York Business
Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.
Here is the original:
Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart - August 2008
It’s been more than a week and I must say I am hooked watching the Olympics. I diligently watched them during my vacation (which included riding dune buggies along Lake Michigan) so I am a little woozy.
Speaking of woozy, I was glad to see President Bush placed clean boating on par with the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.
And better yet…
Matrix is 3 years old
Today it occurred to me that it has been 3 years this month (actually since August 1, 2005) since I began to write here. My first post was about appraisal pressure and my radio interview on National Public Radio, including sound effects. In speaking about this issue in the public domain back then, I felt like I was talking to a wall - not many understood or cared.
Matrix enabled me get the word out from my little corner of the world.
1658 posts later, it remains a labor of love, content subject to my moods and time. I have always seen it as thinking out loud and appreciate the public and private insights from those who read it. More to come. A lot of exciting things on my agenda this year.
…thanks for reading.
Read more:
[Olympic Matrix] Landing A Triple Summer Flip
<span class=”field_caption”>Full Description</span>: Car hire & Transfers with mini vans or estates vehicles.<br />
Private trips with driver & English speaking guide, from 50 per day. All destinations.<br />
Rent a mini van or limousine from 15 per day.<br />
See original here:
CAR HIRE & TRANSFERS
<span class=”field_caption”>Full Description</span>: Car hire & Transfers with mini vans or estates vehicles.<br />
Private trips with driver & English speaking guide, from 50 per day. All destinations.<br />
Rent a mini van or limousine from 15 per day.<br />
Go here to read the rest:
CAR HIRE & TRANSFERS
<span class=”field_caption”>Full Description</span>: Car hire & Transfers with mini vans or estates vehicles.<br />
Private trips with driver & English speaking guide, from 50 per day. All destinations.<br />
Rent a mini van or limousine from 15 per day.<br />
The rest is here:
CAR HIRE & TRANSFERS
<span class=”field_caption”>Full Description</span>: Car hire & Transfers with mini vans or estates vehicles.<br />
Private trips with driver & English speaking guide, from 50 per day. All destinations.<br />
Rent a mini van or limousine from 15 per day.<br />
See original here:
CAR HIRE & TRANSFERS
<span class=”field_caption”>Full Description</span>: Car hire & Transfers with mini vans or estates vehicles.<br />
Private trips with driver & English speaking guide, from 50 per day. All destinations.<br />
Rent a mini van or limousine from 15 per day.<br />
Go here to read the rest:
CAR HIRE & TRANSFERS
