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[Note: To follow is an excerpt of a radio show interview conducted by Peter L. Mosca, host of Income Property Investment Talk dot com, with Steven Moreira, CCIM, CIPS, and CEO and sole stock-holder of the 4-Quadrant Magic Companies, who provides a comprehensive look at the financial markets, financing, and what is happening on the streets in the marketplace, right now in terms of funding and lending. To listen to the show archive or download an MP3, go to www.IncomePropertyInvestmentTalk.com/021010.]

Read the rest here:
Moreira on Success: Be Flexible, Willing to Change and Never Stop Learning

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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan. Not much change, however, over the first two months of the year.

February 2010


[click image to expand]

Elevated sales activity in the second half of 2009 showed a greatly improved absorption rate for all market price strata. Even when I began to track absorption in this manner last August, the picture had already improved greatly. See below to compare to current.

August 2009


[click image to expand]

View 2009 and 2010 archives.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.

Continued here:
[Manhattan Absorption] Bounty of Sales via Pent-up Demand Release

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[click to open report]

Trulia released its Price Reduction Report for March 2010 and press release

The report suggests that sellers are being more realistic when pricing their homes. Over the past year, the rate of price decline began to ease and actually stabilize in certain housing markets. Prices stabilized, largely because sellers finally began to adapt to the new (lower priced) market.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this discount trend begin to expand again in the coming months as sellers enter the spring housing markets with more optimism after a higher level of activity at the end of last year. The tax credit continues to play a role in the higher level of demand. As Trulia builds history on this report, I’m interested on seeing what seasonal patterns there are.

Unemployment remains at very high levels and credit remains very tight. I don’t this see this trend suggesting a housing recovery – its more of a sign that we are leaving surreal market conditions of 2009.

a new all-time low for national home price reduction levels since the company started tracking in April 2009, with 19 percent of listings currently on the market in the United States as of March 1, 2010 experiencing at least one price cut. This represents a 10 percent decrease from the previous month and the first time price reduction levels have dropped below 20 percent. The total dollar amount slashed from home prices dropped to $21.6 billion and the average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold at 11 percent off of the original listing price.

Of the 50 largest US cities…

Top 5 Cities (most price deductions)

Bottom 5 Cities (least price deductions)

US home sellers more realistic on prices -Trulia

The percentage of U.S. homeowners who cut the listing price on their houses fell in February to the lowest level in 10 months, as initial pricing became more realistic heading into the spring selling season, real estate web site Trulia.com said on Tuesday.

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[Trulia] Price Reduction Report – March 2010

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[click to expand]

President Obama announced his intent to appoint several individuals to serve on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. One of them is Edward Tufte who has been my inspiration to look at the housing market with data in different ways. He’s taught me how to see through the BS in charts and tables we are spun with nearly every day – and no – I am not one of his PR people.

He says:

I will be serving on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. This Panel advises The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, whose job is to track and explain $787 billion in recovery stimulus funds.

Anyone who has been reading this blog since the early days (2005) knows I am a big fan of Edward Tufte, professor Emeritus of Political Science, Statistics, and Computer Science at Yale University. His self-published books are fascinating and cover the way we present information. I’ve attended one of his seminars when he came to New York.

I especially love his essay on Powerpoint, the worst way to present information in the history of mankind (ok, so I get a little emotional about the topic). Here’s a sampling.

Continued here:
[Graphing Stimulus] Edward Tufte Presidential Appointment

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The Obama administration has come up with a radically aggressive plan to reduce foreclosure activity which has remained alarmingly high. The key ingredient is to encourage lenders/services to allow more short sales – selling the home for less than the amount of the mortgage without going after the debtor for the shortfall. Mortgage modification plans have not been successful to date.

The New York Times page 1 story today Program Will Pay Homeowners to Sell at a Loss does a masterful job in presenting the program and summarizing the problems of the issue to date, I just wish the title wasn’t so simplistic.

Perhaps I am missing the point, but I feel like this solution has focused on the wrong side of the mortgage default equation. Are servicers going to forgive $200,000 in principal to get $1,000? Are homeowners going to move forward because they get $1,500 (more than the servicer) in relocation fees?

The flood of short sale requests are already overloading many bank’s ability to handle the administration of this crisis – hard to see them able to manage the process any more efficiently.

However, the only way out of this crisis is a solution with principal foregiveness in the equation or people will simply walk away and perhaps the servicer/lender ends up being hurt more. No easy answer I suppose.

Real estate agents will determine property value

One mechanical aspect of this process which demonstrates the administration’s and government in general’s disconnect in the need for neutral analysis of value. Real estate agents, who are paid to sell property, determine the “reserve” price above which the lender/servicer must adhere to.

Under the new federal program, a lender will use real estate agents to determine the value of a home and thus the minimum to accept. This figure will not be shared with the owner, but if an offer comes in that is equal to or higher than this amount, the lender must take it.

Mr. Paul, the Phoenix agent, was skeptical. “In a perfect world, this would work,” he said. “But because estimates of value are inherently subjective, it won’t. The banks don’t want to sell at a discount.”

How about a neutral party in the process? A qualified appraiser? (not the yahoos doing AMC work in high volume). I would assume the agents selecting the number are not allowed to sell the property (huge assumption on my part) but why not have someone who can’t ever sell the property, whose full time job it is to estimate market value, be assigned that task?

The devil is in the details.

See original here:
[New Mortgage Program] Getting Paid To Sell Short

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Three Cents Worth:
Reading the Tea Leaves of Listing Inventory

This week I thought I’d try to compare the listing inventory trend in the first two months of any given year and see if there was a corresponding change in re-sale price per square foot adjusted for inflation. The thinking is that faster inventory growth means more weakness in price—pretty basic.


[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

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[Three Cents Worth #142] Reading the Tea Leaves of Listing Inventory

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Source: NY Times [click to expand]

Floyd Norris’ Off The Charts column “Banks Out of the Woods? Maybe Not” had some sobering news from the FDIC.

  • $1 of $8 in outstanding 1-family mortgage loans is to a troubled borrower.
  • 40% of 1-family residential construction loans delinquent or uncollectible.
  • Number of outstanding loans falling, even after adjusting for write offs.
  • 2.9% of loans written off in 2009, highest rate in FDIC history.

Some good news?

  • Fewer loans are going bad – 30-89 day loan arrears falling

However this good news may be misleading – a regulatory change allows banks to only write down the exposure.

Source:
Why Banks Aren’t Going To Ease Mortgage Underwriting Anytime Soon

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Note to readers – Matrix was hacked and we moved to a new host. Lost some of the graphics as a result – will get back on track shortly.


[click to expand]

The Wall Street bonus pool rose 17% and average bonus per person rose 25%.

Wall Street bonuses paid to New York City securities industry employees rose by 17 percent to $20.3 billion in 2009, according to an estimate released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. Total compensation at the largest securities firms grew even faster and industry profits could exceed an unprecedented $55 billion in 2009, nearly three times greater than the previous all-time record. In 2008, the industry lost a record $42.6 billion.

On the surface this sounds like there will be a big jolt to the NYC regional economy. The sector is an important economic engine, providing 25% of the income from 5% of the jobs. Every job lost on Wall Street causes the loss of 2.5 private sector jobs.

The higher growth in bonuses are bittersweet – while the average per person bonus was up because there was job loss in the sector. Arguably few jobs lost than forecast but it tempers the bonus impact on the real estate economy.

But bonuses are controversial especially when so many are struggling outside of Wall Street. President Obama fell prey to populist sentiment with his “Fat Cats on Wall Street” comments but now doesn’t begrudge them (I’ve never been able to use begrudge in a sentence before).

Bonus income accounts for as much as 50% of total compensation for an individual.

But as John Mack, Morgan Stanley Chairman, has said

“I still don’t think the industry gets it,” Bloomberg reported the veteran banker as saying yesterday during an appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina (hat tip Huffington Post). “The issue is not structure, it is amount.”

My anecdotal feedback is that compensation seems to be about 70% restricted stock and 30% cash. And institutions like UBS are reportedly paying out half of the cash compensation now and half in 6 months.

That knocks the wind out of the “sales” (sorry) for a spring frenzy in the NYC housing market that has grown accustomed to a frenzy over the past decade. Still, it will help but I am skeptical about it helping above seasonal expectations, but who really knows.

[click to expand]

Source: New York State State Comptroller

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Wall Street Bonus Money Flows Like Molasses

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With Canadian house prices rising and sales booming, the government is “acting to prevent Canadian households from getting overextended, and acting to help prevent some lenders from facilitating it,” says Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty. New mortgage rules make it a little tougher for buyers to qualify for high-ratio mortgages, and are designed to discourage speculators.

More:
What Canada’s New Mortgage Rules Mean to You

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Three Cents Worth:
Manhattan Townhouses and the High Price of Being Single

Manhattan townhouses represent about 2 percent of all unit residential sales in Manhattan, but since I haven’t done much with that data lately I thought I’d analyze the premium between one-family and two-to-five-family townhouse properties.

First, I inflation-adjusted the average sales price for the three property types. As an aside, the rise in townhouse prices was at half the rate of condos over the past decade—the impact of the credit boom on condo new development skewed their price growth higher than townhouses…


[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

More:
[Three Cents Worth #141] Manhattan Townhouses and the High Price of Being Single

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Dave Ramsey checks in with the hot topics this time of year: tax prep, home buying 101and how much mortgage can you really afford.

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Dave Ramsey on Tax Prep, Home Buying

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ORLANDO – NAI Realvest recently completed the sale of a 7,000 square foot industrial building located at 189 Jamaica Ln. off South Orange Ave. in Orlando. Michael Heidrich, principal at NAI Realvest, negotiated the transaction representing the buyer, The Jamaica Group, LLC a local firm who paid $525,000.00 for the property. The seller is Ana T. Lopez-Giraldo of Orlando.

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NAI Realvest Negotiates Investment Sale of 7,000 Square Foot Industrial Building in South Orlando

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LAKE MARY – Kolter Homes will start construction of a new two-story townhome building in early March at Grande Oaks at Heathrow, the gated luxury community located on CR 46A and Orange Blvd. at Heathrow in Lake Mary. Steve Bovio, senior project manager for Grande Oaks at Heathrow, said the new building will accommodate six townhome units.

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Kolter Homes to Start Construction of New Two-Story Townhome Building at Grande Oaks at Heathrow

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SOUTH DAYTONA – Winston-James Development, LLC, which developed the West Orange Business Center in Winter Garden and the Aloma Commerce Center in Oviedo, recently negotiated new lease agreements at both centers. Winston Schwartz, president of Winston-James Development, said J. Short Insurance leased 1,000 square feet of office space at the West Orange Business Center in Winter Garden. Valet Waste, which provides services to multi-family properties in Central Florida, leased 1,870 square feet of office space at Aloma Commerce Center.

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Winston-James Development negotiates lease agreements for commercial space in Winter Garden, Oviedo

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MAITLAND – NAI Realvest recently negotiated a new lease for 1,400 square feet of professional office space at 620 SW 4th Ave. in Gainesville. NAI Realvest broker associate Paul Vera negotiated the three-year agreement representing the tenant, Gainesville Injury Rehabilitation Center. The landlord is Fourth Avenue Investments, LLC. and was represented by Russ Hirshik of ERA Trend Realty.

Continued here:
NAI Realvest Negotiates New Lease Agreement for Rehab Center in Gainesville

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