“The economy is based on trust,” said Dean Johnson, associate professor of finance at Michigan Technological University in Houghton, Michigan.
In situations like the recent housing bubble, or even the stock market collapse of 1929, where markets were driven by debt and fueled by the false expectation that values can only increase, trust can be a very fragile thing.
“One little blip and everything started to unwind,” Johnson said. “The particulars are different, but the basics are familiar.”
Trust, however, seems to be coming back, according to Johnson. If people are cautious and not spending money, the government and financial industry must take action to encourage capital liquidity. During the first half of 2009, this is exactly what they have been doing. And if the effects have not been as immediate as some would like and others needed, at least their efforts are beginning to take effect.
Why does Johnson believe trust is returning? He points to the Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures investors’ expectations of how volatile the stock markets will be. The VIX reached all-time highs in 2008.
“People think of it as the fear gauge,” Johson explained. “it’s encouraging that the VIX, though still high be historical standards, is down about 60 percent from what it was at its peak in November.”
Other, more recent, signs that trust is being rebuilt in the American housing/real estate markets and the financial industry include:
- USA Today reports that while the construction market remains weak the housing market may be improving slightly. Residential construction reportedly dropped to the lowest level since December 1995. Pending homes sales increased slightly in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
- Proposed legislation to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency is making progress at the federal level, according to the Washington Post. The Post reports that the Treasury Department’s proposal for a new federal agency to consolidate the plethora of state and federal regulators responsible for overseeing the lending industry arrived on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
- At the end of June, Fannie Mae, which is still under the conservatorship of the federal government, reported its mortgage portfolio grew at a compound annual rate of more than 35 percent in May. A report from Dow Jones appearing in the Wall Street Journal indicates a large jump in the issuing of mortgage-backed securities offset continued rises in single-family and multi-family mortgage delinquencies.
Notes of caution, however, are also being heard. Yale University economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Schiller home-price index, Robert Schiller told Bloomberg: “At this point, people are thinking the fall is over. The market is predicting the declines are over.” At the same time he is “not optimistic that we’re going to see any sharp rebound.”
Johnson agrees with Schiller.
“It’s still a risky market,” Johnson stresses. “This is the first time in history that you’ve been better off if you’d put your money under a mattress 10 years ago. But hopefully, this indicates that the financial markets are returning to normal.”
Of course this doesn’t mean the housing market or the financial industry will be returning to the halcyon days of pre-mortgage crisis days anytime soon. It doesn’t matter how badly investors, bankers, consumers, lenders, the government or the world at large want it.
“There’s no easy fix,” Johnson concluded. “We have to take our medicine. It took 20 years to create the over-leverage and it will take time to undo that.”
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Is Trust Returning to the Mortgage Industry?
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