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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan. Not much change, however, over the first two months of the year.

February 2010


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Elevated sales activity in the second half of 2009 showed a greatly improved absorption rate for all market price strata. Even when I began to track absorption in this manner last August, the picture had already improved greatly. See below to compare to current.

August 2009


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View 2009 and 2010 archives.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.

Continued here:
[Manhattan Absorption] Bounty of Sales via Pent-up Demand Release

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I recently had the good fortune of getting to know the founder and owner of LINK Boston, Debra Taylor Blair. Her firm built and operates the MLS system in Boston. She also provides invaluable information to the public and the real estate community through her Conversation Series.

She and I are kindred spirits in the world of data and look forward to a better understanding of the Boston market.

Coming soon: Matrix coverage of the Boston market.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.

Originally posted here:
[The Housing Helix Podcast] Debra Taylor Blair, Owner, LINK Boston

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[click to open report]

Trulia released its Price Reduction Report for March 2010 and press release

The report suggests that sellers are being more realistic when pricing their homes. Over the past year, the rate of price decline began to ease and actually stabilize in certain housing markets. Prices stabilized, largely because sellers finally began to adapt to the new (lower priced) market.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this discount trend begin to expand again in the coming months as sellers enter the spring housing markets with more optimism after a higher level of activity at the end of last year. The tax credit continues to play a role in the higher level of demand. As Trulia builds history on this report, I’m interested on seeing what seasonal patterns there are.

Unemployment remains at very high levels and credit remains very tight. I don’t this see this trend suggesting a housing recovery – its more of a sign that we are leaving surreal market conditions of 2009.

a new all-time low for national home price reduction levels since the company started tracking in April 2009, with 19 percent of listings currently on the market in the United States as of March 1, 2010 experiencing at least one price cut. This represents a 10 percent decrease from the previous month and the first time price reduction levels have dropped below 20 percent. The total dollar amount slashed from home prices dropped to $21.6 billion and the average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold at 11 percent off of the original listing price.

Of the 50 largest US cities…

Top 5 Cities (most price deductions)

Bottom 5 Cities (least price deductions)

US home sellers more realistic on prices -Trulia

The percentage of U.S. homeowners who cut the listing price on their houses fell in February to the lowest level in 10 months, as initial pricing became more realistic heading into the spring selling season, real estate web site Trulia.com said on Tuesday.

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[Trulia] Price Reduction Report – March 2010

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[click to expand]

President Obama announced his intent to appoint several individuals to serve on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. One of them is Edward Tufte who has been my inspiration to look at the housing market with data in different ways. He’s taught me how to see through the BS in charts and tables we are spun with nearly every day – and no – I am not one of his PR people.

He says:

I will be serving on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. This Panel advises The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, whose job is to track and explain $787 billion in recovery stimulus funds.

Anyone who has been reading this blog since the early days (2005) knows I am a big fan of Edward Tufte, professor Emeritus of Political Science, Statistics, and Computer Science at Yale University. His self-published books are fascinating and cover the way we present information. I’ve attended one of his seminars when he came to New York.

I especially love his essay on Powerpoint, the worst way to present information in the history of mankind (ok, so I get a little emotional about the topic). Here’s a sampling.

Continued here:
[Graphing Stimulus] Edward Tufte Presidential Appointment

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The Obama administration has come up with a radically aggressive plan to reduce foreclosure activity which has remained alarmingly high. The key ingredient is to encourage lenders/services to allow more short sales – selling the home for less than the amount of the mortgage without going after the debtor for the shortfall. Mortgage modification plans have not been successful to date.

The New York Times page 1 story today Program Will Pay Homeowners to Sell at a Loss does a masterful job in presenting the program and summarizing the problems of the issue to date, I just wish the title wasn’t so simplistic.

Perhaps I am missing the point, but I feel like this solution has focused on the wrong side of the mortgage default equation. Are servicers going to forgive $200,000 in principal to get $1,000? Are homeowners going to move forward because they get $1,500 (more than the servicer) in relocation fees?

The flood of short sale requests are already overloading many bank’s ability to handle the administration of this crisis – hard to see them able to manage the process any more efficiently.

However, the only way out of this crisis is a solution with principal foregiveness in the equation or people will simply walk away and perhaps the servicer/lender ends up being hurt more. No easy answer I suppose.

Real estate agents will determine property value

One mechanical aspect of this process which demonstrates the administration’s and government in general’s disconnect in the need for neutral analysis of value. Real estate agents, who are paid to sell property, determine the “reserve” price above which the lender/servicer must adhere to.

Under the new federal program, a lender will use real estate agents to determine the value of a home and thus the minimum to accept. This figure will not be shared with the owner, but if an offer comes in that is equal to or higher than this amount, the lender must take it.

Mr. Paul, the Phoenix agent, was skeptical. “In a perfect world, this would work,” he said. “But because estimates of value are inherently subjective, it won’t. The banks don’t want to sell at a discount.”

How about a neutral party in the process? A qualified appraiser? (not the yahoos doing AMC work in high volume). I would assume the agents selecting the number are not allowed to sell the property (huge assumption on my part) but why not have someone who can’t ever sell the property, whose full time job it is to estimate market value, be assigned that task?

The devil is in the details.

See original here:
[New Mortgage Program] Getting Paid To Sell Short

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Three Cents Worth:
Reading the Tea Leaves of Listing Inventory

This week I thought I’d try to compare the listing inventory trend in the first two months of any given year and see if there was a corresponding change in re-sale price per square foot adjusted for inflation. The thinking is that faster inventory growth means more weakness in price—pretty basic.


[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

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[Three Cents Worth #142] Reading the Tea Leaves of Listing Inventory

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[click to open report]

Zillow has been one of the most visible and talked about AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) in the US and enjoyed considerable press during the housing boom. Of course they have always been at the mercy of the quality of public record data despite their technology prowess.

Perhaps they were more guilty of overhyping the reliability of their “Zestimates” in the early days by presenting value estimates precisely down to the dollar. But hey, it was cool to see how much your neighbor’s house was worth.

There was an interesting article in Valuation Review (subscription) and HousingWire.

The study concludes that:

Zestimates on Zillow.com are no more accurate than homeowner’s estimates.

When it comes to using the Zillow.com automated valuation model (AVM) to get a free listing price on a house, users may be getting what they paid for, according to a report published by the Appraisal Institute that finds the Web site overestimates the values on homes almost as often as the actual homeowners.

Zillow has become the real estate punching bag to the real estate community. And once again, they are on the defensive in the media coverage of this report.

Here’s the issue:

The key issue regarding Zillow’s Zestimates is whether they reflect transaction prices. Zillow has been described both as “a useful site” and as “categorically wrong.” There have been many instances of praise and many instances of complaints by homeowners using the Web site to estimate the value of their homes. Realtors in general have also been critical of the values produced by Zillow.

Agents had issues with over valuation because they tended to set seller’s expectations too high. Of course, appraisers have an ax to grind with a service that was perceived to trivialize their expertise in valuation.

The report, “Zillow’s Estimates of Single-Family Housing Values,” was authored by Daniel Hollas, Ronald Rutherford and Thomas Thomson, doctors in economics, real estate and business, respectively. The report was published in the quarterly technical and academic publication of the Appraisal Institute, the nation’s largest association of real estate appraisers.

View the report.

Excerpt from:
Appraisal Journal Study Cites Flaws In Zillow AVM

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The bankers are once again attempting to tilt the system in their favor by trying to turn Florida into a non-judicial foreclosure state. What this would mean is that the banks would not have to go through the legal system in order to have a foreclosure sale, which they currently must. My law firm represents thousands of homeowners in foreclosure and we are licensed to practice in several states including California, which is a non-judicial foreclosure state. I have seen how the banks simply steam roll homeowners in California, making no good faith effort to help keep these people in their homes.

Source:
Editorial: Banks Are Looking For More Bailouts

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Source: NY Times [click to expand]

Floyd Norris’ Off The Charts column “Banks Out of the Woods? Maybe Not” had some sobering news from the FDIC.

  • $1 of $8 in outstanding 1-family mortgage loans is to a troubled borrower.
  • 40% of 1-family residential construction loans delinquent or uncollectible.
  • Number of outstanding loans falling, even after adjusting for write offs.
  • 2.9% of loans written off in 2009, highest rate in FDIC history.

Some good news?

  • Fewer loans are going bad – 30-89 day loan arrears falling

However this good news may be misleading – a regulatory change allows banks to only write down the exposure.

Source:
Why Banks Aren’t Going To Ease Mortgage Underwriting Anytime Soon

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Note to readers – Matrix was hacked and we moved to a new host. Lost some of the graphics as a result – will get back on track shortly.


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The Wall Street bonus pool rose 17% and average bonus per person rose 25%.

Wall Street bonuses paid to New York City securities industry employees rose by 17 percent to $20.3 billion in 2009, according to an estimate released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. Total compensation at the largest securities firms grew even faster and industry profits could exceed an unprecedented $55 billion in 2009, nearly three times greater than the previous all-time record. In 2008, the industry lost a record $42.6 billion.

On the surface this sounds like there will be a big jolt to the NYC regional economy. The sector is an important economic engine, providing 25% of the income from 5% of the jobs. Every job lost on Wall Street causes the loss of 2.5 private sector jobs.

The higher growth in bonuses are bittersweet – while the average per person bonus was up because there was job loss in the sector. Arguably few jobs lost than forecast but it tempers the bonus impact on the real estate economy.

But bonuses are controversial especially when so many are struggling outside of Wall Street. President Obama fell prey to populist sentiment with his “Fat Cats on Wall Street” comments but now doesn’t begrudge them (I’ve never been able to use begrudge in a sentence before).

Bonus income accounts for as much as 50% of total compensation for an individual.

But as John Mack, Morgan Stanley Chairman, has said

“I still don’t think the industry gets it,” Bloomberg reported the veteran banker as saying yesterday during an appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina (hat tip Huffington Post). “The issue is not structure, it is amount.”

My anecdotal feedback is that compensation seems to be about 70% restricted stock and 30% cash. And institutions like UBS are reportedly paying out half of the cash compensation now and half in 6 months.

That knocks the wind out of the “sales” (sorry) for a spring frenzy in the NYC housing market that has grown accustomed to a frenzy over the past decade. Still, it will help but I am skeptical about it helping above seasonal expectations, but who really knows.

[click to expand]

Source: New York State State Comptroller

View post:
Wall Street Bonus Money Flows Like Molasses

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Three Cents Worth:
Manhattan Townhouses and the High Price of Being Single

Manhattan townhouses represent about 2 percent of all unit residential sales in Manhattan, but since I haven’t done much with that data lately I thought I’d analyze the premium between one-family and two-to-five-family townhouse properties.

First, I inflation-adjusted the average sales price for the three property types. As an aside, the rise in townhouse prices was at half the rate of condos over the past decade—the impact of the credit boom on condo new development skewed their price growth higher than townhouses…


[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

More:
[Three Cents Worth #141] Manhattan Townhouses and the High Price of Being Single

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I speak with Nancy Chemtob, a partner with Chemtob Moss Forman & Talbert, LLP a New York City law firm specializing in divorce, family and matrimonial law. My firm has done a lot of work with Nancy and her partners over the years and admire her approach and candor. Plus she’s fun to talk with.

The biggest asset in a divorce action is most often the real estate. The housing market crunch of the past 18 months has played havoc with the divorce process. What’s most interesting is the fact that divorce attorneys are often at the leading edge of a changing real estate market as their clients deal with the reality of market conditions within their strategy.

Note: I’ve got a new equipment set-up (again) and I am still wrangling with it so my audio track is a bit too loud. But Nancy makes her presence heard.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.

Original post:
[The Housing Helix Podcast] Nancy Chemtob Esq., Chemtob Moss Forman & Talbert LLP

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[click to play - "The Housing Market"]

Last fall both Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman and I were guests on Lawline TV hosted by Alan Schnurman.

The segment didn’t air until after the new year and frankly, I forgot I could see it in its final form – until a friend of mine mentioned he watched it on TV the other day. The show doesn’t run on my cable service at home.

Alan gets both Dottie and I to describe what we were seeing in the market last fall. This was my third stint on his show at his Brooklyn studio and I’ve always enjoyed Alan’s company.

Read the original here:
[In The Media] Lawline TV The Housing Market 11-19-2009

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[click to open report]

Trulia released its Price Reduction Report for February 2010 and press release

After several years of significant price reductions, the amount of the deductions have been showing a decline. However, since there isn’t seasonal data to trend (the series started in mid-2009), we can only use this to confirm what we have already observed. California was one of the first market areas to see sharp price decline so sellers don’t have much more distance to travel to reach market and therefore they are at the bottom of the list. The months before the expiration of the tax credit program saw a rise in the amount of seller price declines. The subsequent renewal saw a sharp reversal of the pattern.

Major Metros in California Experience Biggest Decreases in Home Price Reductions
SAN FRANCISCO February 16, 2010 – Trulia.com (www.trulia.com), smart real estate search to help you make better decisions, today announced that 21 percent of homes currently on the market in the United States as of February 1, 2010 have experienced at least one price cut. This represents the second straight month of home price reductions at this level, the lowest level since Trulia started tracking price reductions in April 2009, and a significant decrease since November 2009, when 26 percent of homes had at least one price reduction. The total dollar amount slashed from home prices dropped to $22.6 billion compared to $28.1 billion in November, a 19 percent decrease. The average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold at 11 percent off of the original listing price.

California Seeing Less Reductions

Of the top 50 major U.S. cities*, only seven had price reduction levels at 30 percent or higher in February 2010, down from 21 in November 2009. Eight cities have seen a decline by more than one-third, and five of those cities are from the state of California: San Francisco, Oakland, Sacramento, San Jose, and San Diego.

Tax Credit is Skewing Seller Behavior

The trend, in fact, is pretty clear – it’s what to make of it that’s the question. The months leading up to the pending expiration of the home buyer tax credit last fall saw a rising trend line of price reductions, here and across the country.

Read more from the original source:
[Trulia] Price Reduction Report – February 2010

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I had a great discussion with Steve Wagner, an attorney who specializes in representing co-ops/condos, litigation and technology, among other areas. I have worked with his firm Wagner Davis, P.C. over the years on some crazy cases.

Steve has a wealth of knowledge, but don’t get him started on grandfathering in co-ops. Listen to find out why.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.

Go here to read the rest:
[The Housing Helix Podcast] Steven R. Wagner Esq., Wagner Davis, P.C.

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