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In my continuing obsession with appraisal/lending issues given the bank shakeouts that will occur over the next 12-18 months, here’s an email conversation with IndyMac on an appraisal assignment occurred in late May with my appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

The report was ordered with a specific inspection date needed. Up until then, our turn time was consistently 7-10 days, usually inspecting the property within a day or 2 after the order depending on the contact info accuracy and customer cooperation. Granted, 7-10 days is not stellar, but we are very busy, ours clients know this in advance and our competitors (that I would consider competent) have the same turn times as well.

You can see one of our employees frustrations toward the end because we had gone through great effort to accommodate the bank to inspect the property on the day they needed it done and they did not indicate early on that there was any “rush” plus they basically told us we were not needed, after a warm and fuzzy relationship that preceded this conversation. Very odd.

I guess what annoyed me in seeing this email later on, was the comment about their 0 default rate and yet the lender collapsed 2 1/2 months later. I am sure this person was responding to their own branch’s experience but its weird they brought up such a reference in the dialog, inferring (to me, anyway) that it was a big problem looming at the bank).

Incidentally, 300 banks are projected to fail in the next 3 years.

May 28, 2008 email dialog

IndyMac Please provide status on this report – thanks

Miller Samuel [address omitted] will be inspected tomorrow, May 28th.

IndyMac And how soon thereafter can we expect the completed report? Thanks

Miller Samuel All appraisal turnaround time is currently 7-10 business days starting from the time of inspection.

IndyMac We are going to have to cancel this order- sorry but your turn around time is just too long.

Miller Samuel [name omitted] we have worked an entire schedule around this appt.
When do u need the hard copy and we will deliver it.

IndyMac We have appraisers that give us reports back within 2 days of the inspection. This is still not going to work. If you can get us the reports back in that time frame we will have a lot of business for you. I am sorry

Miller Samuel Yikes! That’s called bang it out, hit the number appraising. No that’s not something we participate in. That’s how subprime occurred and why the housing market continues to fall. Conditions for mortgage fraud remain in tact with many lenders because of a lack of concern for quality.
48 hr Speed = Bad appraisals and ultimately bad loans. We can do 5-7 business days. I really hope you guys don’t end up like countrywide and all the rest. But with 2 day turn time its inevitable.

IndyMac I understand your position and would never ask you to do something you are not comfortable doing. This branch does AAA business with typically low ltv’s, high credit, etc. Our default ratio is nearly 0 pct and we pride ourselves on efficiency and effectiveness. I think going forward we should help you gain access earlier in the transaction so you can adequately do your job. If there is something we can do on our end please let us know.

July 11, 2008

IndyMac collapses

July 17, 2008

FBI fraud inquiry after IndyMac collapse

IndyMac Collapse Fuels Fears About WaMu

See the rest here:
“Near Zero Default” A Recent IndyMac Conversation About Speed

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How cool is this?

A chart based on the percent change in cpi-adjusted quarterly median sales price from the prior year quarter using the “surface” charting function in Excel. Really!

I don’t know what the chart actually shows, but if I get it printed and matted or made into a quilt…I have an alternative art career if this appraisal gig doesn’t work out (so far so good, thankfully).

Ok, I’ll be on vacation next week, dreaming of defaults, housing prices and inventory.

Yeah right.

See the original post:
[In Search Of Credit] Matrix Taking A Vacation

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The upcoming Inman Real Estate Connect San Francisco conference is a must see event for real estate professionals, plus it is in San Francisco, one of my favorite places. Check out the deal for bloggers.

Inman News has been touting the wide swath of speakers as:

  • The Best and the brightest;
  • Real estate industry’s champions; and
  • Industry heavyweights

Ok, ok. I get the hint. I need to lose a few pounds….

Inman Real Estate Connect is great because it attracts decision makers and innovators. I always learn something a lot and meet many great people.

Brad, Joel, Jessica and company know how to run an event.

On Friday in the main conference venue, I’ll be participating in the last panel discussion of the conference:

When Will the Housing Market Turn?

  • Alex Perriello, CEO, Realogy
  • Joel Singer, EVP, CAR
  • Jonathan Miller, Co-Founder, Miller Samuel
  • Patrick F. Stone, Chairman, The Stone Group

Should be a great time.

View post:
[Gettin’ Heavy] Real Estate Connect San Francisco 2008

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Note: ignore the icky duplicate column to the far right – Matrix is being tweaked slowly as time permits!

In the recent edition of PMI’s Housing and Mortgage Market Review (which is now a better read since chief economist David Berson came over from FNMA), focus was on affordability this month. Mortgage lending has gotten back to basics since last summer. Thats a positive long term view and will hopefully promote better overall financial stability of the banking system. It will be interesting to see how long this new found religion lasts after lenders post substandard profit performance over the next several years.

Underwriting standards remain tight, but there is a general feeling that affordability is better now that mortgage rates are relatively stable and prices have fallen in many markets.

NAR publishes a housing affordability index which the PMI analyzes. Affordability has jumped substantially over the past 6 months. The index bases its index on three factors:

  • Mortgage rates (modest gains)
  • House prices (NAR existing home sale stats are skewed by mix)
  • Family income (slower growth)

Prices are the real wild card here since the other two factors aren’t improving affordability. The PMI report spends a lot of time analyzing the OFHEO and S&P indexes which use the repeat sales methodology.

However, the problem with the NAR Affordability Index is not which price index is selected. The problem is that it does not consider availability of credit. Underwriting standards are the highest they have been in years. Its not an apples to apples index because the formula doesn’t consider this major variable (it wasn’t necessary to consider this 10 years ago because underwriting standards were relatively stable) to affordability. Availability of credit is now the key driver of affordability.

To say affordability is “way up”, while technically true, has no real world application. The word “affordability” in this application is simply the name of a metric, not a correct word to describe whether borrowers are more able to purchase a home.

If affordability is “way up”, why are home sales declining and foreclosures rising?

Logic says that if affordability is up significantly, we would have seen a surge of home purchases since the beginning of the year. That hasn’t happened. Why? Because many who would have qualified for a mortgage in 2005, doesn’t qualify today even if there was no change in their financial condition.

Reality. Can’t live with it, can’t live without it.

Looking At Housing Affordability In The Real World

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Periodically, I like to round-up some of my favorite recent blog posts or articles that are housing market/credit/economy related. It’s journalism heaven: housing provides an endless supply of stuff to write about and this week was no exception.

Credit:
[Housing On Fire] Blogoshere Hose-Down, Heaven Can Wait Edition

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Trulia launches yet another innovation today called Trulia Snapshot that further shows that they are the leaders in capturing and managing listing information for consumers. (disclosure: I am on their industry advisory panel)

Its one of a number of innovations they have released that deals specifically with the visual representation of data.

Trulia Snapshot is a tool that allows you to browse properties listed for sale on Trulia in a very different way. The photos are placed over a map of the local you are interested in and you can view by most to least expensive, oldest to newest, etc.

My favorite feature is being able to see where the specific listing sits within the housing stock available for sale.

Very cool.

See the rest here:
[Trulia Snapshot] Visualizing Listing Shots Are, Well, A Snap

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The New York Times business section has some sort of chart mojo going on. They have been creating some interactive charts for a while now that are simply amazing.

In this weekend’s article (sorry, I’ve been out – see previous post), In Housing, the Strong Turn Weak Vikas Bijaj, with contribution by Christine Haughney, layout out the state of housing across the US using the CSI numbers. (I contributed the Manhattan stats) The numbers were striking. In markets that have been doing well are showing weakness.

Click here for the interactive charts for each of the 20 markets covered using actual or cpi-adjusted numbers matched against the aggregate. Please look at Las Vegas and Phoenix.

And some pretty telling charts. Take a look at inventory.

See the rest here:
[CSI Stats] Fun With Charts: Its All About Inventory

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For many years my wife and I have read and enjoyed Randy Cohen’s “The Ethicist” column in the New York Times. For the life of me, I can’t believe some of the questions.

Even better, the New York Times now has The Ethicist as a podcast, with a new version released every Friday. I pack my iPhone with podcasts and this column is one of my regulars.

This week, I was self-consciously chuckling on the quiet commuter train ride in. It seems that someone was torn by whether or not to lie on their mortgage application.

So much for the differences between right and wrong. It is Memorial Day weekend and we want rays of sunshine!

If you listen to it from now until next Thursday, you can simply click “play” directly off the NYT Podcast page. Look for “The Ethicist for 05/23/2008

or download the MP3

View original post here:
[The Ethicist] Money Drunk Sun = Lying On Mortgage Application?

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Had to dust off my chart tools and re-visit Three Cents Worth, my erratic semi-regular but too infrequent posts on Curbed. This week I go tidal on listings and sales.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

Read the original:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Ebb & Flow

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Had to dust off my chart tools and re-visit Three Cents Worth, my erratic semi-regular but too infrequent posts on Curbed. This week I go tidal on listings and sales.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.


Source:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Ebb & Flow

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Housing markets are seasonal, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Its May so we would expect the housing activity would be higher than it would be say in January. The weather is warmer, the birds are chirping, Lawrence is saying things are great. So whats the problem?

You need to compare the current housing market with the same period in the preceding year or years.

Is June better than December in terms of sales activity and price trends? How about May versus January?

Using this logic, these articles seem a little light.

Yet in markets like Sacramento County, median sales price is down 40% since August 2005. As Andrew Leonard in his column writes:

A 40 percent drop. If those are the kinds of numbers required to goose the market back into action, the entire economy still has a lot of pain coming.

However, I like the decline from peak comparisons, so disregard my argument for using seasonality. I am either hot or cold on it, depending on the weather.

[Seasonal Sensibility] Isn’t It Supposed To Get Better In The Spring?

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In this week’s The Hall Monitor post in our other blog Soapbox called Bigger Is Not Always Better explores the idea that the multiple decades long trend toward larger house sizes may be over.

In other words, smaller housing size may matter more in the near future.

See original here:
Outstanding On Our Soapbox: Bigger Is Not Always Better

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I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.

Source: Crain’s New York Business

Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.

View original post here:
Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – May 2008

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Well this morning, I got up at 4:15am to do a live C-Suite interview on Fox Business News at 6:45am. Always fun and I enjoyed meeting Jenna Lee in person after having known her only via telephone when she was a reporter. I must have done ok since they invited me back next friday morning. ;-)

Here’s this morning’s clip.

We talked about both housing starts and my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel. I had thought that the April numbers would show further decline. March was the lowest in 17 years and was down by 2/3 from the January ‘06 high. Economists surveyed generally thought starts would be down around 1.4%.

Surprisingly, starts were up.

Starts jumped 8.2% but that was due to multi-family starts. Single family starts were actually down 1.7%. Overall starts are down 30.6% from the same time last year.

Bad Stats 101

Check out the Census’ press release quote:

Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,032,000. This is 8.2 percent (±14.5%)* above the revised March estimate of 954,000, but is 30.6 percent (±6.7%) below the revised April 2007 rate of 1,487,000.

Translation of up 8.2 percent (±14.5%): Overall housing starts were anywhere from -6.3% to +22.7%. Seems wildly vague, doesn’t it?

Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 692,000; this is 1.7 percent (±11.7%)* below the March figure of 704,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 326,000.

Translation of down 1.7 percent (±11.7%): Single-family starts were anywhere from -13.4% to +10%. Seems wildly vague as well.

If you think about it, nothing has really changed since last summer’s credit crunch that would change the direction of the housing market.

  • How can we talk about a bottom yet?
  • What market force is going to get more people to buy right now?
  • What economic force is going to stimulate demand as we approach or are in a recession?

The credit markets are still frozen, mortgage rates have risen, underwriting standards are higher and reduced the buyer power of consumers.

The headline increase in starts means nothing; it is all due to a rebound in the hugely volatile, but essentially trendless, multi-family sector,” said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics.

Builders have been reluctant to build because demand for new homes has plunged and the supply of unsold property remained high. The latest data show new-home sales, for March, were down 36.6% from a year earlier. On Thursday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its index for sales of new, single-family homes slipped to 19 in May from 20. The gauge is based on a survey of builders asked about prospects for sales.

“The magnitude of the housing bubble was unprecedented, and the corrective process promises to be a long and painful one,” MFR Inc. Joshua Shapiro said of the NAHB data. “Hence, it is hardly surprising that builder sentiment is still languishing very near its all-time low.”

As far as Miller Samuel (my appraisal firm) goes, we have been booming since February. Fox Business inadvertently inserted a text banner during my interview that referred to our now defunct acquisition by RL from last fall. I had terminated the take-over in March.

Our firm is built for a down housing market because lenders as well as other clients actually want to know what the value is and the nuances of housing markets we cover, rather than only the number needed to make the deal. We did not fare as well as others during the housing boom because of the erosion of underwriting standards and the shift of appraisal work from retail lenders to mortgage brokers.

The current lending environment is encouraging, in a contrarian sort of way, by getting back to basics. Hopefully this will permeate the entire lending process.

The housing boom was tough for appraisers who refused to bow to pressure to push values higher than they should have been and the work was given to those who would.

But the world is changing, and like the IRS, we are here to help…

From the:

Who Cares But
It’s Still Cool
Department:

Christine Haughney’s Collateral Foreclosure Damage for Condo Owners in the NYT yesterday that sourced and used us for background, was the most emailed article in the New York Times both yesterday and today. THAT is cool (to me). It was designated to be an A1 story but was bumped for the earthquake in China coverage.

Source:
[In The Media] Fox Business C-Suite Interview for 5-16-08

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Ranked 87th, I’ll Take It

May 14
Uncategorized

The New York Observer, with it’s new ownership, has devoted the back portion of its publication to real estate coverage which has a lot of good stuff and has garnered a lot of attention in the process. One way to do this is to publish a list…

Here’s the list
The 100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate

I made 87th, which is both flattering and surreal since the diversity and quality of accomplishments runs the spectrum. So I think this is a good thing? Hey, I am the only appraiser on the list.

87
Jonathan Miller
President and CEO of Miller Samuel

His huge market reports for Elliman can stir up exhilaration or dread about the state of the city, the kind of thing that makes or breaks a bubble. Plus, his firm did $5 billion in Manhattan evaluations last year, which means there’s a relatively good chance he’s appraised you.

My profile is one of the few without a picture, but they use my eye in the center of the cover of today’s paper (inside the first “0″ of “The 100″). ;-)

Spoken like an 87th ranked individual…

Ok, back to work.

Read more:
Ranked 87th, I’ll Take It

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