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How cool is this?

A chart based on the percent change in cpi-adjusted quarterly median sales price from the prior year quarter using the “surface” charting function in Excel. Really!

I don’t know what the chart actually shows, but if I get it printed and matted or made into a quilt…I have an alternative art career if this appraisal gig doesn’t work out (so far so good, thankfully).

Ok, I’ll be on vacation next week, dreaming of defaults, housing prices and inventory.

Yeah right.

See the original post:
[In Search Of Credit] Matrix Taking A Vacation

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These photos say it all: captured on Movoto.com, a foreclosure listing somewhere in North Oakland, California. The listing doesn’t appear to be there now but the links to the photos are still here and here.

Sadness and…

Blood?

What was the listing agent thinking?

Go here to see the original:
[Matrix Images] Foreclosure Listings: Sad And Bloody

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The upcoming Inman Real Estate Connect San Francisco conference is a must see event for real estate professionals, plus it is in San Francisco, one of my favorite places. Check out the deal for bloggers.

Inman News has been touting the wide swath of speakers as:

  • The Best and the brightest;
  • Real estate industry’s champions; and
  • Industry heavyweights

Ok, ok. I get the hint. I need to lose a few pounds….

Inman Real Estate Connect is great because it attracts decision makers and innovators. I always learn something a lot and meet many great people.

Brad, Joel, Jessica and company know how to run an event.

On Friday in the main conference venue, I’ll be participating in the last panel discussion of the conference:

When Will the Housing Market Turn?

  • Alex Perriello, CEO, Realogy
  • Joel Singer, EVP, CAR
  • Jonathan Miller, Co-Founder, Miller Samuel
  • Patrick F. Stone, Chairman, The Stone Group

Should be a great time.

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[Gettin’ Heavy] Real Estate Connect San Francisco 2008

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Note: ignore the icky duplicate column to the far right – Matrix is being tweaked slowly as time permits!

In the recent edition of PMI’s Housing and Mortgage Market Review (which is now a better read since chief economist David Berson came over from FNMA), focus was on affordability this month. Mortgage lending has gotten back to basics since last summer. Thats a positive long term view and will hopefully promote better overall financial stability of the banking system. It will be interesting to see how long this new found religion lasts after lenders post substandard profit performance over the next several years.

Underwriting standards remain tight, but there is a general feeling that affordability is better now that mortgage rates are relatively stable and prices have fallen in many markets.

NAR publishes a housing affordability index which the PMI analyzes. Affordability has jumped substantially over the past 6 months. The index bases its index on three factors:

  • Mortgage rates (modest gains)
  • House prices (NAR existing home sale stats are skewed by mix)
  • Family income (slower growth)

Prices are the real wild card here since the other two factors aren’t improving affordability. The PMI report spends a lot of time analyzing the OFHEO and S&P indexes which use the repeat sales methodology.

However, the problem with the NAR Affordability Index is not which price index is selected. The problem is that it does not consider availability of credit. Underwriting standards are the highest they have been in years. Its not an apples to apples index because the formula doesn’t consider this major variable (it wasn’t necessary to consider this 10 years ago because underwriting standards were relatively stable) to affordability. Availability of credit is now the key driver of affordability.

To say affordability is “way up”, while technically true, has no real world application. The word “affordability” in this application is simply the name of a metric, not a correct word to describe whether borrowers are more able to purchase a home.

If affordability is “way up”, why are home sales declining and foreclosures rising?

Logic says that if affordability is up significantly, we would have seen a surge of home purchases since the beginning of the year. That hasn’t happened. Why? Because many who would have qualified for a mortgage in 2005, doesn’t qualify today even if there was no change in their financial condition.

Reality. Can’t live with it, can’t live without it.

Looking At Housing Affordability In The Real World

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In a recently released paper called The Use of Social Capital in Borrower Decision-Making by a doctoral student at Harvard, Cassi Pittman, with the support of the NeighborWorks America’s Emerging Leaders in Community and Economic Development Fellowship and the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. This research focuses exclusively on black borrowers’ search for and obtaining of mortgage
financing.

Because of wide variations on mortgage borrowing patterns based on race, this study looks at mortgage patterns from the demand perspective. In other words: how do individuals decide to go with a particular lender or mortgage product?

The preliminary findings indicate that borrowers’ preferences and subsequent demands for
mortgage products were shaped by the informal and formal advice they received.
Those
borrowers who consulted the most diverse sources of information had loans with lower
interest rates. Those borrowers who received advice only from family and friends did not fare
as well as those who received help from credit counselors. Thus, arguably, their loan
outcomes varied not just based on if they consulted others, but especially whom they
consulted. When given the right advice, potential homebuyers make better decisions in
choosing both a lender and a loan.

The report sample size is arguably small and because of the quickly changing environment, feels a little dated (ie 65% of origination is via mortgage brokers – it must be half that market share or less right now), but its well written, presented and even better…it’s interesting, covering such on an abstract subject.

Just sitting through a closing, illustrates the futility of federally mandated mortgage disclosures. Not only are the volumes of documents cumbersome and lack clarity, but it serves to confuse borrowers even more. When borrowers do not understand the terms of
their mortgage and the fees associated with the transaction, they are more likely to be victims
of lending abuses and to be charged
“fees that far exceeded what would be expected justified
based on economic grounds”
. The mortgage rates charged were as high as 16% in a low mortgage rate environment. 2-28 (2 years fixed, 28 years adjustable) were among the most popular.

Of course, conventional mortgage denial rates played a role in fueling demand for subprime products.

Obtaining a mortgage in today’s mortgage market is a complicated process. When reaching a
decision on a home loan, borrowers might feel compelled to use their social networks for
information and guidance.
Loan products have become increasingly complex. Federally
mandated mortgage disclosure forms, instituted to display the cost of the mortgage transac-
tion and to prevent “the uninformed use of credit,” have been found to poorly convey the true
cost of borrowing.

With all the talk about social networks, the social network that influences a mortgage decision is particularly powerful and the financial stakes are high.

Source:
[Social Mortgaging] Using Social Capital To Seek Out Information

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My immediate and extended family seems interested in playing Powerball on a semi-regular basis. I’ve always been against playing the Lottery personally, but am more than happy to share in the winnings. It somehow feels like cheating. Ok, so I am too complex for my own good. Anyway, whats been particularly humorous to me has been the notion that people seem to pile on when the jackbox gets really large. In other words, “it’s not worth my time to play for $100M, but $300M, hey that’s real money” (but more stress).

I read a recently released demographics study by Pew Research called: The Middle Class Blues: Pricey Neighborhoods, High Stress (I get a little queasy by the low sample size, but I’ll go with it).

The survey, conducted January 24 through February 19, 2008, asked respondents to place themselves into one of five socio-economic classes.3 Just over half (53%) of all respondents say they are middle class, and this proportion is consistent across the three cost-of-living tiers — with 52% of those who live in high-cost areas, 54% of those in medium-cost areas and 50% of those in low-cost areas saying they are middle class.

I found it interesting the cost of housing was a primary determinate of middle class status within a particular location (housing is local). So New Yorkers who visit Michigan (ahem…self-included) need to do some adjusting.

Real estate is a larger share of personal wealth in high-cost areas. Among the middle class, 41% of those who live in expensive regions say that their homes account for more than half their financial worth. Only a quarter (24%) of middle class Americans in low-cost metropolitan areas say so. Of course, homes in costly areas also are worth more: 69% of middle class respondents in those regions say the value of their homes is $250,000 or more. That compares with 14% of the middle class in low-cost areas.

That in it self is not eye opening but rather the idea that housing is the primary variable for differences in net worth and self-perception is.

Despite these differences, though, middle class residents of costly and low-cost areas are about equally likely to have lifestyle amenities such as flat-screen TVs, two or more cars, and paid household help.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the downturn and the rise in foreclosures changes the boundaries of the middle class definition.

Give me $100M and I’ll relax by the pool stress free.

More:
[PowerHouse] Middle Class Status Variable Is A Constant

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Periodically, I like to round-up some of my favorite recent blog posts or articles that are housing market/credit/economy related. It’s journalism heaven: housing provides an endless supply of stuff to write about and this week was no exception.

Credit:
[Housing On Fire] Blogoshere Hose-Down, Heaven Can Wait Edition

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Back in March, I was invited back to do another appearance on Lawline TV. I had the pleasure of appearing with Jacky Teplitsky of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Alan Schnurman has been hosting this show for nearly 30 years I believe. He’s good interviewer and apparently a very successful real estate investor.

This interview was done before I had compiled my Q1 08 stats but it wouldn’t have changed the content of my presentation.

View the clip (There is no direct link to the interview so look for “The Impact of Economic Downturn on the Real Estate Market”)

Excerpt from:
[In The Media] Lawline Clip for 5-22-08

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Trulia launches yet another innovation today called Trulia Snapshot that further shows that they are the leaders in capturing and managing listing information for consumers. (disclosure: I am on their industry advisory panel)

Its one of a number of innovations they have released that deals specifically with the visual representation of data.

Trulia Snapshot is a tool that allows you to browse properties listed for sale on Trulia in a very different way. The photos are placed over a map of the local you are interested in and you can view by most to least expensive, oldest to newest, etc.

My favorite feature is being able to see where the specific listing sits within the housing stock available for sale.

Very cool.

See the rest here:
[Trulia Snapshot] Visualizing Listing Shots Are, Well, A Snap

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The New York Times business section has some sort of chart mojo going on. They have been creating some interactive charts for a while now that are simply amazing.

In this weekend’s article (sorry, I’ve been out – see previous post), In Housing, the Strong Turn Weak Vikas Bijaj, with contribution by Christine Haughney, layout out the state of housing across the US using the CSI numbers. (I contributed the Manhattan stats) The numbers were striking. In markets that have been doing well are showing weakness.

Click here for the interactive charts for each of the 20 markets covered using actual or cpi-adjusted numbers matched against the aggregate. Please look at Las Vegas and Phoenix.

And some pretty telling charts. Take a look at inventory.

See the rest here:
[CSI Stats] Fun With Charts: Its All About Inventory

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I’ve been AWOL since Monday. Got out of the hospital. Ouch! In for the same reason I went in 1997 and 2003, which coincidentally were the same years the Marlins won the World Series. I got the opportunity to mention this to the current owner a few years ago for a chuckle. The Marlins are in first place right now and then I go to the hospital. Coincidence? Don’t bet on it. They’re a lock.


Source: Wikipedia

So this emoticon thing, we think we’re pretty clever and original. It’s a language created in a growing world of Instant Message, Twitter, Text Message, etc. The emoticons in this post header are from 1881.

Abbreviations have a way of expanding (remember when MacDonald’s only served hamburgers?), creating the need for something simpler to replace it. I have talked lot about abbreviations used in property listings in newspaper advertising, where a language of real estate abbreviations evolved incentivised by pay per word pricing which is becoming more diluted as classified listings move online.

There is an awesome article in William Saffire’s column On Language in NYT Magazine last weekend called Emoticons: The seamy side of semiotics where he makes the case that language is in the third stage of compression.

  1. Three centuries ago, we were fed the short’nin’ bread of contraction; won’t, don’t, I’m, you’re made the apostrophe the king of cant, which caused a 19th-century lexicographer to denounce writers “carrying contraction to such an excess as to make their writings unintelligible to all but the initiated.”

  2. Then came the period of portmanteau terms, named after the French suitcase with hinged compartments: chuckle and snort blended into chortle; breakfast and lunch fused into brunch; and, in our time, broadcast and the World Wide Web morphed into webcast (still capitalized as “Webcast” by the New York Times copy czar).

  3. Electronic communication has whisked us into a third phase of compression: the Age of Shortspeak. As we listen and watch replays of multicasts to suit our scheduling convenience, those above-mentioned interminable, bor-r-ing four-second pauses are edited out. Humanizing uh, er, ah, um moments of meaningless vamping are pitilessly erased; even the dramatist’s “pregnant pause” has been digitally aborted.

In other words, intro a new “short” way to communicate. It evolves. Repeat.

I know people who use IM who are not good at communicating emotional nuance and some that are. This all boils down to the constant change and evolution of language. Some people are good at adapting and some aren’t.

Arrrgh

P^{)

Excerpted from:
LOL becomes ROTFLOL ;-) becomes :-@EIK becomes Eat In Kitchen

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For many years my wife and I have read and enjoyed Randy Cohen’s “The Ethicist” column in the New York Times. For the life of me, I can’t believe some of the questions.

Even better, the New York Times now has The Ethicist as a podcast, with a new version released every Friday. I pack my iPhone with podcasts and this column is one of my regulars.

This week, I was self-consciously chuckling on the quiet commuter train ride in. It seems that someone was torn by whether or not to lie on their mortgage application.

So much for the differences between right and wrong. It is Memorial Day weekend and we want rays of sunshine!

If you listen to it from now until next Thursday, you can simply click “play” directly off the NYT Podcast page. Look for “The Ethicist for 05/23/2008

or download the MP3

View original post here:
[The Ethicist] Money Drunk Sun = Lying On Mortgage Application?

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Had to dust off my chart tools and re-visit Three Cents Worth, my erratic semi-regular but too infrequent posts on Curbed. This week I go tidal on listings and sales.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.

Read the original:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Ebb & Flow

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Had to dust off my chart tools and re-visit Three Cents Worth, my erratic semi-regular but too infrequent posts on Curbed. This week I go tidal on listings and sales.

Click to view post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.


Source:
[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Ebb & Flow

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Housing markets are seasonal, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Its May so we would expect the housing activity would be higher than it would be say in January. The weather is warmer, the birds are chirping, Lawrence is saying things are great. So whats the problem?

You need to compare the current housing market with the same period in the preceding year or years.

Is June better than December in terms of sales activity and price trends? How about May versus January?

Using this logic, these articles seem a little light.

Yet in markets like Sacramento County, median sales price is down 40% since August 2005. As Andrew Leonard in his column writes:

A 40 percent drop. If those are the kinds of numbers required to goose the market back into action, the entire economy still has a lot of pain coming.

However, I like the decline from peak comparisons, so disregard my argument for using seasonality. I am either hot or cold on it, depending on the weather.

[Seasonal Sensibility] Isn’t It Supposed To Get Better In The Spring?

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