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Friday Morning March 12, 2010 7:00 AM to 8:30 AM [TOMORROW]
Usually I post something AFTER I speak, but since I was invited to “guest co-host” (in title only since I’ll have no idea what I am doing) Bloomberg Surveillance tomorrow, I thought I’d give a head’s up. I’ll be on with Ken since Tom will be traveling.
Talking mortgages, housing, mods, short sales, foreclosures. Always fun to be in the studio.
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[In The Media] Bloomberg Surveillance March 12 7AM
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.
The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan. Not much change, however, over the first two months of the year.
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Elevated sales activity in the second half of 2009 showed a greatly improved absorption rate for all market price strata. Even when I began to track absorption in this manner last August, the picture had already improved greatly. See below to compare to current.
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Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.
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[Manhattan Absorption] Bounty of Sales via Pent-up Demand Release
There are a lot of exciting things coming out in the next few weeks – here are my top 3:
1. Like it? Hate it? The iPad which drew a ton of rumors and speculation is ready to make it’s debut. The 1st commercial aired during the Academy Awards (which explains why Steve Jobs was on the red carpet) and is officially going mainstream. The iPad will be on sale on April 3, 2010 and pre-orders begin March 12, 2010.
Here’s the commercial in case you missed it:
2. Better than the iPhone?! The Google Nexus One phone – the phone that had a lot of buzz when it first came out, is a phone that critics are still wondering if it can compete with the iPhone and other touch-pad type smartphones. Google has never made it a secret that they plan to release it to multiple carriers – just WHEN is the question. This phone is rumored to be coming to Verizon on March 23, 2010.
3. Wonder if I could sneak into this? 
f8 – The Facebook Developer Conference is slated for April 21-22, 2010.
According to the Facebook blog,
“f8 has always been about empowering a community of developers to hack, to build and to delight users. We’re looking forward to continuing this tradition at our third f8 in San Francisco on April 21-22, 2010. Please save the date!”
BONUS: One more thing to add to your calendar this month. Planning on coming to Real Estate Connect SF (#icsf) – Early Bird Registration ends in 11 days! Sign up by 3/19/10 and save over $300!
Would love your comments – please leave feedback below!
Written by: Katie Lance, Marketing Manager, Inman News
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I recently had the good fortune of getting to know the founder and owner of LINK Boston, Debra Taylor Blair. Her firm built and operates the MLS system in Boston. She also provides invaluable information to the public and the real estate community through her Conversation Series.
She and I are kindred spirits in the world of data and look forward to a better understanding of the Boston market.
Coming soon: Matrix coverage of the Boston market.
Check out the podcast
The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Originally posted here:
[The Housing Helix Podcast] Debra Taylor Blair, Owner, LINK Boston
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Trulia released its Price Reduction Report for March 2010 and press release
The report suggests that sellers are being more realistic when pricing their homes. Over the past year, the rate of price decline began to ease and actually stabilize in certain housing markets. Prices stabilized, largely because sellers finally began to adapt to the new (lower priced) market.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this discount trend begin to expand again in the coming months as sellers enter the spring housing markets with more optimism after a higher level of activity at the end of last year. The tax credit continues to play a role in the higher level of demand. As Trulia builds history on this report, I’m interested on seeing what seasonal patterns there are.
Unemployment remains at very high levels and credit remains very tight. I don’t this see this trend suggesting a housing recovery – its more of a sign that we are leaving surreal market conditions of 2009.
a new all-time low for national home price reduction levels since the company started tracking in April 2009, with 19 percent of listings currently on the market in the United States as of March 1, 2010 experiencing at least one price cut. This represents a 10 percent decrease from the previous month and the first time price reduction levels have dropped below 20 percent. The total dollar amount slashed from home prices dropped to $21.6 billion and the average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold at 11 percent off of the original listing price.
Of the 50 largest US cities…
Top 5 Cities (most price deductions)
Bottom 5 Cities (least price deductions)
US home sellers more realistic on prices -Trulia
The percentage of U.S. homeowners who cut the listing price on their houses fell in February to the lowest level in 10 months, as initial pricing became more realistic heading into the spring selling season, real estate web site Trulia.com said on Tuesday.
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[Trulia] Price Reduction Report – March 2010
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President Obama announced his intent to appoint several individuals to serve on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. One of them is Edward Tufte who has been my inspiration to look at the housing market with data in different ways. He’s taught me how to see through the BS in charts and tables we are spun with nearly every day – and no – I am not one of his PR people.
He says:
I will be serving on the Recovery Independent Advisory Panel. This Panel advises The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, whose job is to track and explain $787 billion in recovery stimulus funds.
Anyone who has been reading this blog since the early days (2005) knows I am a big fan of Edward Tufte, professor Emeritus of Political Science, Statistics, and Computer Science at Yale University. His self-published books are fascinating and cover the way we present information. I’ve attended one of his seminars when he came to New York.
I especially love his essay on Powerpoint, the worst way to present information in the history of mankind (ok, so I get a little emotional about the topic). Here’s a sampling.
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[Graphing Stimulus] Edward Tufte Presidential Appointment
The Obama administration has come up with a radically aggressive plan to reduce foreclosure activity which has remained alarmingly high. The key ingredient is to encourage lenders/services to allow more short sales – selling the home for less than the amount of the mortgage without going after the debtor for the shortfall. Mortgage modification plans have not been successful to date.
The New York Times page 1 story today Program Will Pay Homeowners to Sell at a Loss does a masterful job in presenting the program and summarizing the problems of the issue to date, I just wish the title wasn’t so simplistic.
Perhaps I am missing the point, but I feel like this solution has focused on the wrong side of the mortgage default equation. Are servicers going to forgive $200,000 in principal to get $1,000? Are homeowners going to move forward because they get $1,500 (more than the servicer) in relocation fees?
The flood of short sale requests are already overloading many bank’s ability to handle the administration of this crisis – hard to see them able to manage the process any more efficiently.
However, the only way out of this crisis is a solution with principal foregiveness in the equation or people will simply walk away and perhaps the servicer/lender ends up being hurt more. No easy answer I suppose.
Real estate agents will determine property value
One mechanical aspect of this process which demonstrates the administration’s and government in general’s disconnect in the need for neutral analysis of value. Real estate agents, who are paid to sell property, determine the “reserve” price above which the lender/servicer must adhere to.
Under the new federal program, a lender will use real estate agents to determine the value of a home and thus the minimum to accept. This figure will not be shared with the owner, but if an offer comes in that is equal to or higher than this amount, the lender must take it.
Mr. Paul, the Phoenix agent, was skeptical. “In a perfect world, this would work,” he said. “But because estimates of value are inherently subjective, it won’t. The banks don’t want to sell at a discount.”
How about a neutral party in the process? A qualified appraiser? (not the yahoos doing AMC work in high volume). I would assume the agents selecting the number are not allowed to sell the property (huge assumption on my part) but why not have someone who can’t ever sell the property, whose full time job it is to estimate market value, be assigned that task?
The devil is in the details.
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[New Mortgage Program] Getting Paid To Sell Short
The recession may have done a number on your credit score, even if it spurred you to reform spendthrift ways and cut up your credit cards. For many, the drops have come at the same time that lenders have tightened their standards and demanded higher scores to get the best interest rates.
Read the rest here:
The recession has hurt many people’s credit scores. How to fix it?
Pedestrian-friendly Huntington Terrace in Bethesda is celebrating its centennial this year. Narrow streets — about 20 feet, curb to curb — pass homes with mature trees and modest front yards. Children can walk to Bradley Hills Elementary School without having to cross busy streets.
Read more here:
Huntington Terrace: An eclectic ‘American village’ in Md.
We are a nation of bargain hunters, especially when it comes to real estate. And what could be a better bargain strategy than this? Snap up a foreclosed, partially completed house for a song, finish it up and own a really nice home for less money than buying a finished house.
Excerpted from:
Do-it-yourselfers can shell out for a real estate ‘bargain’
As if losing one’s home in a foreclosure or short sale were not already sufficiently traumatic, many former homeowners are learning that the day they turn in their keys may be only the start of an even more prolonged housing-induced misery.
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Sometimes losing a home is just the beginning of the pain
It’s been more than 16 months since Eugene and Patricia Harrison last paid the mortgage on their Perris, Calif., home. Eleven months since the notice got slapped on their front door, warning that the house would be sold at auction.
Credit:
Squatters in their own house: When banks don’t foreclose
We want to refinance our home loan. We are at 5.75 percent and might be able to get 4.85 percent on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. We would save $87 to $104 per month, and we are thinking about adding extra money each month to pay off the loan faster.
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Looking to refinance? Ask yourself these four crucial questions.
Many real estate agents are sensing an emerging trend of multiple generations living under the same roof, according to a national survey by Coldwell Banker.
The rest is here:
Joining forces with Mom and Dad
The ending of winter and approach of spring intensify cabin fever and turn gardeners’ thoughts to the potential that greenhouses — and their fancier cousins, conservatories — offer.
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Grow any plant, any season, in a greenhouse
